Poll sees no outright win in key provinces for ANC and DA
Neither the ANC nor the DA is in a pole position to win an outright majority in next year’s elections in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, according to the DA’s internal research, raising the prospect of the coalition government in two of SA economic powerhouses still reeling from the July 2021 riots.
The DA’s poll, which is confidential, is in line with several polls, including one by the ANC, which suggest that the governing party’s national electoral support could fall below the 50% mark during the 2024 general election.
The DA is pinning its hopes on the success of its “Moonshot Pact” with other opposition parties, excluding the EFF, and possible newcomers to band together to topple the ANC.
The DA’s internal research, seen by Business Day, adds to evidence of discontent in the country, which has endured four to eight hours of power cuts daily in recent months as well as rampant unemployment and corruption.
SUPPORT
In Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal –which account for 60% of SA’s economy –the DA projects electoral support to grow significantly as the ANC and EFF electoral support declines. Based on a voter turnout of 66%, similar to the 2019 general elections, the DA projects that its support in Gauteng will increase from 27.45% in 2019 to 37% in 2024 while in KwaZulu-Natal, it projects that its support will grow from 13.90% in 2019 to 20% in 2024.
If one does not factor in differential voter turnout in next year’s elections, the DA projects that its electoral support will increase to 26% in Gauteng and 18% in KwaZulu-Natal.
For the ANC, the DA projects that the party’s support will drop in Gauteng from 50.19% in 2019 to 34% in 2024. In KwaZuluNatal, the DA projects that the ANC’s support will slump to 37% from 54,22%.
The survey, which has a national margin of error of 4%, is
based on a telephonic survey of 1,700 demographically and geographically representative registered voters.
The ANC in KwaZulu-Natal has acknowledged the threat that the DA’s partnership with the IFP has had in successive by-elections in the province. In a report presented to the party’s national working committee (NWC) in May, the provincial secretary, Bheki Mtolo, warns that the DA’s “Moonshot Pact” with the IFP is costing the ANC votes in municipalities in the area.
Between February 2022 and April 2023, the IFP won seven wards and the DA one from the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal, including wards in eThekwini, Umtubatuba and Umsunduzi, according to the Mtolo report.
“It still lost the wards to the IFP because it gained votes from DA and DA effectively campaign [sic] for the IFP and mobilise its voters to go and vote for the IFP hence even though the ANC increased support in ward 99 eThekwini and ward 4 Mtubatuba it loses these two wards based on the DA and IFP moonshot coalition [sic],” the report reads.
Election analyst Wayne Sussman says that considering the recent results of by-elections in KwaZulu-Natal the DA has room to grow, but in Gauteng, it still faces the threat of the Freedom Front Plus which has shaved off some of its support, especially in Tshwane.
“The DA does have challenges in Gauteng but there is time for parties to turn things around ... The ANC is in a weaker position today than in the [2021] local government elections,” Sussman says.
THE DA DOES HAVE CHALLENGES IN GAUTENG BUT THERE IS TIME FOR PARTIES TO TURN THINGS AROUND
Analyst Gareth Van Onselen says there is still a significant amount of time before the 2024 elections so the DA’s polling numbers could change.
On the proposed “Moonshot Pact“, Van Onselen says voters like the idea of opposition parties working together because it drives up opposition turnout. But any such agreement must be believable. If they are not believable, if coalitions are defined by distrust and chaos, they have the opposite effect: they drive down opposition voter turnout.
“As things stand, coalitions in Gauteng, in particular, do not engender the believable hope that is required to drive up turnout, they are too unstable. But that might be a moot point, the ANC’s collapse in that province is dramatic, and it looks well set to drop below 50% whatever the opposition does,” he says.