Roche bets on obesity spout to beat Novo

Roche agreed to take over unlisted obesity drug developer Carmot Therapeutics for $2.7bn upfront, joining a list of contestants seeking to challenge Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, dominant makers of weight-loss drugs.

The US takeover target’s most promising drug candidate, a once-a-week injection called CT-388, is a dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist like Lilly’s Mounjaro, or Zepbound.

After encouraging phase I trial results, the Carmot drug is ready to be tested on humans in the second of three trial stages, with a possible market launch in the 2030s, Roche pharmaceuticals division head Teresa Graham said on Monday.

Weight-loss drug market leader Novo is ahead with its injection Wegovy, a single agonist of the GLP-1 gut hormone receptor. Overwhelming demand has left the group scrambling to boost production.

Roche’s share price rose 2.4% in morning trade on optimism that the weight-loss market, estimated by some analysts to reach as much as $100bn, will accommodate many rivals.

“The markets are large enough for ‘me too’ products, particularly when offered at the right price,” Zuercher Kantonalbank analysts said in a note.

Graham said the company wanted more than a low-price alternative to the leaders in the market, telling Reuters that CT388 could become the best obesity drug in the GLP-1 class, on its own or used with other compounds.

“There is opportunity for deeper weight loss, there is opportunity for that weight loss to happen more quickly and tolerability is maybe one of the bigger issues,” said Graham.