Parties are gearing up for watershed election
SA’s political landscape will probably see a significant political shift if analysts and pollsters are to be believed. There is mounting uncertainty over who will form the national and provincial governments after the general election pencilled in for between May and August 2024.
President Cyril Ramaphosa is yet to announce the general election date, but it must be held this year, according to the constitution.
With politicians already in electioneering mode, politics is likely to dominate the national agenda as parties slug it out in what has been described as the most crucial election since 1994.
The political year will start in earnest when the ANC hosts its January 8 celebration in Mbombela, Mpumalanga, to mark its 112th birthday. Pundits will be on the lookout for hints of the ruling party’s electoral manifesto, which will be unveiled later in the year. They have predicted that no party will get a majority vote in the 2024 polls and that coalitions could be the way forward after the election. In that event this may be the ANC’s last January 8 statement as governing party.
Independent polls show that the ANC — which has been rocked by administrative, financial and operational challenges — is likely to fall short of the 50% plus one required for it to form a national government on its own. It could lose power in Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, the Free State and North West. They show it is highly unlikely to win back the Western Cape. The polls also showed no other party would emerge with an outright majority.
More than 100 new political parties, including ActionSA, the Patriotic Alliance, Rise Mzanzi and Mkhonto weSizwe have jumped on the bandwagon. With them and independent candidates standing for election there will be a third ballot for the first time since 1994.
The DA and EFF are expected to launch their manifestos in February. The EFF has indicated it will do so at the Moses Mabhida stadium in Durban, while the DA will do so in Pretoria.
The ANC will present its January 8 statement on Saturday. It is also set to hold its Mayihlome rally at Moses Mabhida Stadium in Durban and its Siyanqoba rally at the FNB Stadium in Johannesburg.
President Cyril Ramaphosa will deliver the last state of the nation address of his first term of office on February 8 in Cape Town. Continued power and water outages around the country as well as the soaring cost of living and high interest rates will no doubt dominate the speech with the country, generally regarded as one of the most unequal in the world, notching up its highest levels of unemployment.
Former president Jacob Zuma has returned to haunt the ANC. He presided over several years of state capture when his friends, the Gupta brothers, looted state coffers and were yielded so much power they were involved in the appointment of ministers and senior executives in parastatals. Zuma is alleged to be the brains behind the formation of new political party MKP.
He has said he will remain an ANC member. But he has also announced publicly that he will not vote for the ANC, a decision that was expected to be discussed at the ruling party’s national executive committee this weekend. The working and middle classes as well as business — who have borne the burden of state capture — will also be holding their breaths ahead of the budget speech in February amid strong indications of pressure on the National Treasury, due largely to continued corruption, to increase corporate and personal taxes.
That would no doubt create a further trust deficit between South Africans and the ANC, which has been punished severely in recent elections.
If the ANC loses the national or any provincial ballots, there will have to be coalition talks.
Independent candidates elected will probably also occupy some parliamentary seats, changing the face of democracy for the first time in 30 years.
Parliament has approved controversial bills, including National Health Insurance. If Ramaphosa signs them off they could have a major effect on SA society before the general election.