Heading into heady political times

For the first time since its relatively peaceful birth in 1994, SA is facing heady political times fraught with uncertainty risks but also opportunities for course correction in implementing pragmatic policies that will arrest its descent into lawlessness and disorder, unemployment, inequality and poverty.

The most anticipated political event is the general election during the first half of this year. To their credit, on the 30th anniversary of the new political dispensation, SA’s diverse politicians, old and new, remain committed to electoral democracy. The 2023 ruling by the Constitutional Court on the participation of independent candidates in the elections removed doubts about the feasibility of holding the general election on time.

Had the apex court sent the electoral law back to the National Assembly, it would have run the risk of delaying the general election. Though not fatal, delayed elections would have cast a cloud over our democracy. Instead, commendably, the highest court opted for a much more pragmatic approach by removing opportunistic hurdles for independents to participate in the polls.

For most South Africans, the elections offer more choice than they have hitherto enjoyed. In the main, most of SA’s problems — unemployment, policy flip-flops, inequality and unemployment

— have been caused by the ANC’s arrogance thanks to its dominance. A competitive political market, including allowing independents to challenge parties, will help loosen the grip the ANC has enjoyed since 1994. This is good for democracy.

The ANC’s waning dominance is also a positive in the sense that its power to punish defectors will be reduced. Most South Africans have embraced the idea that a less powerful ANC could be a force for good. Coalition governments at provincial and national level, even if they are most likely still led by the ANC, could moderate a temptation towards policy adventurism in a fragile economy.

The run-up to the elections is also a source of comic relief. As well as being entertained by the plethora of new parties that have come onto the ballot paper South Africans have been amused by the drama around Jacob Zuma’s latest political theatrics.

On December 16, Zuma, the former ANC president and president of the republic, announced he would neither be campaigning nor voting for the ANC. Instead, he disclosed that he would be campaigning and voting for a new split-off called the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party. In the past few days, he has been visiting provinces to launch the mainly leaderless and faceless MK party, to the annoyance of his political home.

The ANC, which has watched Zuma’s legal harassment of his successor, Cyril Ramaphosa, has struggled to fashion a single position on Zuma. It has filed papers challenging trademark infringement of the name uMkhonto weSizwe, which was registered under its nose with the Electoral Commission of SA months ago. It has no credible position on what to do with Zuma’s gauntlet. Understandably, it fears that Zuma’s show, with no policy platform, could develop into a major pre-election split if he were formally sacked.

The numbers that have pitched up at his events show the ANC is headed for a challenge. His central grievance — Ramaphosa’s ANC — has proved to be sufficient as a central organising idea.

This 2024 political calendar also brings worrying uncertainty, especially for economic operators. Business confidence has been dampened by slow implementation of agreed policy decisions. This is largely attributable to Ramaphosa’s crippling fascination with consultation. Unfortunately, this is unlikely to change before the elections. The effect of his inaction on solutions to the power, logistics and lawlessness crises is concerning.

Equally concerning is the ANC’s flirtation with populist but half-baked public policies. The governing party has turned a deaf ear to voices of reason on policy proposals. Two such policies stand out: the Employment Equity Amendment Act, and the National Health Insurance Bill, which was rushed through parliamentary processes despite concerns from business. In an election year, these laws will be stopped only by law courts.

As is its right, the ANC has chosen to ignore Zuma, for now. But as a governing party, it has no right to allow him to fan instability, especially in the volatile KwaZulu-Natal. We remember the lives lost in July 2021. Zuma is both a political problem and a law and order problem. The ANC and the government need to ensure he plays by the electoral rules.

A COMPETITIVE POLITICAL MARKET WILL HELP LOOSEN THE GRIP THE ANC HAS ENJOYED FOR 30 YEARS