World economy heading for a tricky year — poll

The global economy faces a year of subdued growth prospects and uncertainty stemming from geopolitical strife, tight financing conditions and the disruptive effects of artificial intelligence, a survey of top economists released on Monday says.

Conducted annually before the World Economic Forum’s (WEF’s) annual meeting in the Swiss resort of Davos, the survey of more than 60 chief economists drawn globally from the private and public sectors attempts to sketch the priorities that policymakers and business leaders have set.

About 56% of those surveyed expect overall global economic conditions to weaken this year, with a high degree of regional divergence. While majorities of respondents expected moderate or stronger growth in China and the US, there was broad consensus that European countries would muster only weak or very weak growth.

The outlook for South Asia and East Asia and Pacific was more positive, with high majorities expecting at least moderate growth in 2024.

Reflecting commentary from the world’s top central banks suggesting that interest rates have peaked, a full 70% of those surveyed nonetheless expected financial conditions to loosen as inflation ebbs and current tightness in labour markets eases.

QUALITY

After bursting onto the scene in 2022 and last year artificial intelligence was seen as making an unequal mark on the world economy: while 94% expected it to significantly boost productivity in high-income economies over the next five years, just 53% predicted the same for lowincome economies.

Separately, the WEF released a study on the “quality” of economic growth across 107 economies, which concluded that most countries are growing in ways that are neither environmentally sustainable nor socially inclusive.

“Reigniting global growth will be essential to addressing key challenges, yet growth alone is not enough,” said Saadia Zahidi, MD of the World Economic Forum.

The WEF said it is launching a campaign to define a new approach to growth and help policymakers balance it with social, environmental and other priorities.