Haley courts independents against Trump
Tom Mita, a 45-year-old nonprofit worker in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, is not registered with a political party. That makes him the perfect target for Nikki Haley, who needs independent voters for a chance to prevail in this pivotal primary state.
Mita is thinking about voting for Haley, he told a pair of door knockers who were canvassing for the former US ambassador to the UN outside his home on Saturday, but he is not completely sold on her candidacy.
He wants Haley, who has so far spared Donald Trump from some lines of attack, to go after him more aggressively. He considers Trump a threat to democracy for trying to overturn his 2020 election loss to Democratic President Joe Biden. If Haley pulls her punches, he may vote in the Democratic primary instead.
“It’s really about stopping Trump,” Mita said. “Best scenario would be if she comes out and says that she won’t endorse Trump for president.”
Voters such as Mita, who are unaffiliated with either major party, will be crucial to Haley if she is to pull off an upset and beat Trump in New Hampshire, which holds its primary on Tuesday. She is likely to need a victory here or a very close second to survive, after her thirdplace finish behind Trump and Florida governor Ron DeSantis last week in Iowa.
Voters not tied to either party are the state’s most important bloc. They account for 343,000 of all registered voters, eclipsing the number of registered Republicans and Democrats, according to data from the secretary of state.
Unaffiliated voters are allowed to participate in the primary of their choice. About 30% are effectively Republicans, 35% align with Democrats, and 35% are truly independent, estimates Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Centre and a politicalscience professor.
Given Trump’s stranglehold on the Republican base, Haley will need to secure the support of 70% to 75% of unaffiliated voters to win the state, he said.
COMFORTABLE LEAD
“That’s never happened before,” said Smith. “That’s a really tall order.”
While Haley has closed the gap with Trump in New Hampshire, the former president retains a comfortable lead of 14 percentage points, according to an average of polls compiled by website FiveThirtyEight.
Trump has in recent days sought to portray Haley’s gains in state polls as improper because they reflect growing support among independents. He has also falsely claimed registered Democrats would be allowed to vote in the Republican primary.
Chris Ager, chair of the state
Republican party, said Trump benefited from the backing of independent voters when he won New Hampshire in 2016, reviving his campaign after a loss in Iowa. Ager thinks Trump will win but gives Haley an outside shot.
“Nikki Haley could win New Hampshire,” he told a media round-table in Manchester on Saturday. “The undecideds can break very late.”
Haley’s bid could be boosted by a super political action committee (PAC) formed to persuade right-leaning independents in New Hampshire to support her. The group, Independents Moving the Needle, has been airing a number of supportive ads on local television.
One of the PAC’s founders, Jonathan Bush, said the group is trying to appeal to “rational Americans” who want to move on from Trump and Biden.
“We’re excited at the traction,” said Bush, a cousin of former president George W Bush who helped launch the effort after seeing Haley speak.
Bush emailed his contact list and set up a fundraiser for Haley that netted more than $1m, he said.
BEATING BIDEN
Independent voters, Bush said, are the fastest way for Haley to “get in the ring” against Trump and make it a two-candidate race.
At campaign stops on Saturday, Haley spoke of her appeal to a wide swath of voters, referring to a new Marist College poll that showed her beating Biden in New Hampshire by three percentage points while Trump would lose by seven points.
Angelika Fretzen, 54, an independent voter from Peterborough, New Hampshire, was sold on the pitch.
“She’s a great alternative to Donald Trump,” Fretzen said after attending a rally on Saturday. “I think it’s time for a new generation, and I think a lot of independents of my age group feel that way.”
Carrying out the door knocking was Americans for Prosperity Action, a super PAC mainly funded by billionaire Charles Koch. Of the eight interactions with voters observed by Reuters on Saturday, the canvassers engaged with four Republicans, three independents and one person who did not disclose his affiliation.
Mita and another independent said they were leaning towards Haley while the third plans to vote for Trump.
The Republicans were split between Trump and Haley, two to two.