Business Day

Repo rate is a blunt instrument when precision is needed

• The time has come for the Reserve Bank to expand its policy toolkit to promote inclusive growth

- Rufaro Mafinyani

The Reserve Bank remains stubbornly fixated on a single monetary policy tool: the repo rate. But this overdepend­ence on adjusting the benchmark interest rate to manage inflation and guide the economy is proving inadequate for addressing the country’s complex challenges.

It’s time for the Bank to expand its policy toolkit to promote inclusive growth.

Critics argue that changes to the repo rate influence shortterm interest rates and bond yields predominan­tly rather than actual lending rates for businesses and consumers. This limited transmissi­on to the real economy constrains the tool’s effectiven­ess, especially for the credit-constraine­d sectors that are crucial for job creation.

Small and medium-sized enterprise­s (SMEs) — the backbone of employment creation — end up starved of affordable credit as the benefits accrue mainly to large corporates and sophistica­ted financial institutio­ns.

Reliance on the repo rate amplifies SA’s vulnerabil­ity to global capital flows, triggering rand volatility, which adds uncertaint­y and discourage­s investment. This harms export competitiv­eness and long-term growth prospects. Moreover, the singular focus on inflation risks fuelling dangerous asset bubbles while neglecting the need for financial stability interventi­ons.

In economic crises or downturns, the repo rate also offers limited room for stimulus when already near zero. This shrinks the central bank’s scope to respond effectivel­y to shocks. As demonstrat­ed by the fallout from the Ukraine war, hiking rates often cannot address imported inflation arising from external geopolitic­al factors.

Proponents of the status quo argue that the repo rate’s simplicity fosters market confidence and policy predictabi­lity. Its role in achieving the inflation target over two decades remains invaluable. Interest rate parity with global central banks also supports the rand’s stability. However, the Bank must now move beyond the repo rate’s constraint­s. Expanding the monetary policy toolkit is vital for tackling multifacet­ed challenges such as unemployme­nt, inequality and low growth.

The Bank needs closer coordinati­on with fiscal authoritie­s to maximise synergies between policies. Joint initiative­s could harness the trillion-rand assets of the Government Employees Pension Fund and the Unemployme­nt Insurance Fund’s surplus to finance infrastruc­ture, creating jobs while crowding in private investment. Fiscal expansion through targeted spending on social services and small business aids can complement monetary stimulus.

The Reserve Bank can provide targeted financing facilities and preferenti­al rediscount­ing rates to bolster export competitiv­eness in sectors with high labour intensity and growth potential. This aids export diversific­ation beyond commoditie­s. Exchange rate management through direct interventi­on and capital flow measures can also strategica­lly support exporters.

While risky, quantitati­ve easing should not be dismissed outright. The Bank could incentivis­e banks to channel credit to productive sectors using dedicated lending facilities for SMEs, agricultur­e and manufactur­ing. Co-funded loan guarantees can share risks. Tax incentives for investment­s in job-rich, import-substituti­ng industries could further complement monetary efforts.

As the financial sector regulator, the Bank can guide capital towards priority sectors by offering licensing preference­s for manufactur­ing financiers. Varying cash reserve requiremen­ts and strategic bond issuance allows structured credit allocation. Marketfrie­ndly incentives that mobilise domestic capital are preferable to blunt asset purchase restrictio­ns.

The overriding imperative is to pragmatica­lly expand the monetary policy toolkit instead of rigidly clinging to a blunt, limited instrument. Judicious co-ordination between the Bank and fiscal authoritie­s using both convention­al and unorthodox tools tailored to SA’s economic structure can unlock inclusive growth and maximum employment.

Passive monetary policy has never been sufficient for developmen­t. Less disposable income slows spending and investment, hampering growth. From the 2008 global financial crisis to Argentina’s currency instabilit­y, orthodox tools have repeatedly proved inadequate to resolve crises. This underscore­s the need for proactive, multifacet­ed policies.

When crisis strikes, textbook monetary and fiscal policies often fall short. From Japan’s post-1990 deflationa­ry spiral to the 2008 US financial meltdown, convention­al interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus could not prevent economic calamity. More creative solutions were needed. Japan turned to “Abenomics”, combining fiscal stimulus, quantitati­ve easing and structural reforms, revealing possibilit­ies beyond orthodoxy. The US Federal Reserve unleashed a bold, multifacet­ed response, using interventi­ons such as quantitati­ve easing, targeted lending facilities and bank recapitali­sations to contain panic.

Smaller economies also embraced unorthodox crisis management. Chile establishe­d a copper stabilisat­ion fund to smooth volatile export earnings. Iceland tapped public participat­ion in drafting a new constituti­on after its banking collapse, while restrictin­g capital flight.

Such targeted, contextspe­cific interventi­ons highlight alternativ­es when traditiona­l tools falter. South Korea actively nurtured large domestic conglomera­tes called chaebols through preferenti­al loans, technology transfer and export promotion support. This controvers­ial industrial policy catalysed rapid developmen­t in key sectors.

The overriding lesson is clear: facing modern complex challenges requires expanding the policy arsenal. While risks exist, creative nontraditi­onal solutions can mitigate crises, restore stability and rebuild public trust when textbook remedies alone prove inadequate. Economic orthodoxy must be balanced with pragmatic innovation.

Monetary policy alone cannot resolve all economic challenges. Advocating new tools doesn’t mean unconditio­nally easing rates. But equipping the Bank with a diverse toolkit, judiciousl­y implemente­d in co-ordination with fiscal authoritie­s, can address specific constraint­s through a tailored approach. It is the time to break free from reliance on a blunt instrument unsuited to the intricacie­s of inclusive, employment-centred developmen­t. The path forward lies in co-ordinated, pragmatic policy evolution, not rigid traditiona­lism.

THE RESERVE BANK CAN PROVIDE TARGETED FINANCING FACILITIES …

● Mafinyani is risk advisory & financial modelling partner at DiSeFu, a specialise­d financial technology and risk advisory firm operating in the SubSaharan region.

 ?? /Freddy Mavunda ?? Interest rates: Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago briefs the media on the latest repo rate decision in January at the Reserve Bank office at Centurion in Pretoria.
/Freddy Mavunda Interest rates: Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago briefs the media on the latest repo rate decision in January at the Reserve Bank office at Centurion in Pretoria.

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