Expect populist state of the nation address

In an election year it is tempting for the governing party’s chief deployee to government — President Cyril Ramaphosa — to deliver a populist state of the nation address (Sona) when parliament reopens this Thursday.

Apart from the drama of the exclusion of Julius Malema and five other EFF MPs from Sona, the speech will be watched more for its pre-election promises.

Ramaphosa, who is leading the ANC into its toughest election contest to date, will seek to shore up the party’s electoral fortunes by looking back at its achievements in the past three decades. These will include near universal access to electricity; access to water for the majority; a high matric pass rate; fee-free tertiary and basic education; access to housing; a transformed judiciary; and, of course, a tested constitutional democracy.

He will seek to strike a balance by pointing out the obvious problems that have tainted these achievements. These include access to electricity being undermined by crippling load-shedding and a lack of a credible plan to end power blackouts under ANC rule; a high rate of basic education dropouts despite an increase in no-fee schools; low-quality education of high school graduates; collapsing public services; a failing public health system; an erratic water supply; rampant crime and corruption; and a chaotic urbanisation programme.

He will most likely continue to promise a resolution to myriad problems caused by the ANC’s misrule. Admittedly, the party inherited a state that was meant to serve a minority. Still, this, by and large, was functional and effective.

However, for over 15 years the ANC has shown worrying signs of fatigue and ineptitude in taking the country forward. It has sensible ideas, but its chronic lack of capacity to implement even the most basic of policies has discredited it in the eyes of the populace.

In the past few years, it has presided over the systemic deterioration of law and order, the freight logistics system and reliable supply of electricity. Some retailers missed out on the festive season bonanza because our inefficient ports have yet to clear thousands of containers. Our commodity producers are having to retrench thousands of workers thanks to state-occasioned inefficiencies in freight logistics and electricity supply.

Communities live in fear of criminals. Even businesses are not spared criminality.

Without a good story to tell, Ramaphosa will most likely seek to talk up the business-inspired private-public partnership, which, by far, has the best chances of success. In the past year, SA’s much-maligned business sector, under the auspices of Business for SA, has stepped up to offer a helping hand to government. At least three initiatives are under way. These seek to address the crises of crime and corruption; energy; and freight logistics. In addition, business is seeking to resolve the crisis of unemployment, especially of SA’s youth.

Unfortunately, most of these initiatives are hobbled by Ramaphosa’s ministers. Not only do some of them distrust business, some are plainly peddling ill-founded conspiracies of the private sector seeking to topple a democratically elected government. A case in point is minister in the presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni.

With the general election approaching, Ramaphosa is likely to succumb to the temptation of making populist promises to South Africans this Thursday. Already, there are signs that this is the route he will take. His ministers have been promising to scrap billions of rand of electricity debt owed to energy utility Eskom by Soweto residents.

In the past year, the government has ignored much of what stakeholders, including business, have had to say about some policies. The employment equity amendments are a worrying example in this regard.

Similarly concerning has been the reluctance by the government to take into account genuine concerns by the private sector in respect to the well-intentioned but impossible National Health Insurance Bill. Despite concerns from business, the government has shown little interest in addressing these concerns.

Instead, ANC parliamentarians have used their majority to rush it through parliament and the National Council of Provinces. In all likelihood, this, like other policy proposals, will only be slow-rolled by the courts.

For the past three years, Ramaphosa has been toying with a legacy-building project. Having successfully negotiated and implemented the national minimum wage regime, he has set his sights on another pet project: the universal basic income grant. Its introduction, most likely this Thursday, will give him and his party the biggest electoral boost.