Act now — democracy is under siege in West Africa
West Africa is teetering towards instability and de facto military rule. The continent and its friends need to act fast to rein in the military juntas and restore civilian democracy before it is too late.
On Saturday, Senegal President Macky Sall announced that presidential elections, which he is not allowed to contest in terms of the provisions of the country’s constitution — are to be postponed. His stated reason is the need to resolve a dispute between the judges who oversee elections in Senegal and opposition parties, which accuse the judiciary of malfeasance. He also wants to have a parallel talk shop to resolve political grievances.
In the run-up to the presidential elections a number of opposition candidates, including a son of Abdoulaye Wade, Senegal’s former president, were disqualified from contesting the polls. One opponent is serving a jail term for alleged insurrection charges.
Sall’s unprecedented action ends years of Senegal being regarded as a beacon of stability in a region so prone to political instability and military coups. Until recently, Sall was one of the leaders trying to steer Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger — all run by military juntas — back to democracy. This announcement undermines his credentials as a democrat, and his role as a mediator with the juntas is now in doubt.
There are now reasonable apprehensions about his true intentions. The biggest concern is that Sall has no intention of retiring as required by the constitution, and is instead secretly nursing ambitions to run again, or worse still to stay on indefinitely while grooming a successor who will allow him to rule from the grave.
ECOWAS
A year ago juntas ousted elected but unpopular governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. They then forced out French diplomats. Last week, the three juntas announced their countries’ withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) accusing the trade and political union bloc of serving unnamed external interests.
The juntas have been targets of sanctions, including those imposed by the region, and these have been beginning to bite. A new organisation, Alliance of Sahel States, has been hastily formed as a counterpoint to Ecowas. Little is known about the organisation’s leadership or its programme of action other than that it is supposedly an alternative to Ecowas. Nor is it clear what its relationship will be with the AU, the union of continental states.
Sall has ruled himself out as a peacemaker or go-to leader to mediate the restoration of democracy in that region, and by leaving Ecowas the military regimes have killed off that option too. Without democratic accountability, there are real concerns that the juntas will prolong their stay in power indefinitely, and that instability could also spill over to other countries in the region.
The immediate casualty will be efforts to foster regional economic integration. The simultaneous pullout of three countries from Ecowas, which probably contravenes international law, will undermine efforts to implement the African Continental Free Trade Area, a flagship project of the AU.
Alongside the Southern African Customs Union, Ecowas is one of the oldest regional blocs. With other regional economic communities, Ecowas was meant to form part of building blocks to Africa’s first single market. This now hangs in the balance.
Being out of regional and continental structures also brings other dangers to the region. The continent, including West Africa, has not been spared interference by foreigners. A case in point has been the Wagner Group of Russian mercenaries. Africa has been a lucrative market for Wagner, which has also fought alongside the Russian army in the two-year war against Ukraine.
Without cash, these groups have tended to be bankrolled through Africa’s minerals in exchange for personnel and weapons. The supply of illegal ammunition to these juntas heightens the risk of protracted instability in the region.
The formation of the alliance is worrisome. On the face of it, it suggests a degree of permanence rather than an informal structure with a limited programme of action.
EARLY WARNING
The latest developments should concern the continent’s diplomats and leaders. Both developments — the postponement of presidential elections and the withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger from Ecowas
— were missed by intelligence services on the continent. The AU has no proper early warning system for detecting and stopping brewing conflicts, ostensibly its core business.
Without credible intelligence it is hard to formulate sound politicalmilitary engagement strategies. This should be a wake-up call to Africa and its friends. Ecowas should be the first port of call, but unelected governments cannot take critical decisions because they do not follow due legal process.
The AU, which has been missing in action, needs to rein in the despots and work to restore democracy, especially in Senegal. Irrationally postponing regular elections is as bad as holding a rigged election.
Africa is still blessed with a few older statesmen and women who could be tasked to assist in these situations. Its international friends have a role to play too, though since being hounded out France has shown little interest in re-engaging.
The old form of transactional diplomacy and elite pacting has gone out of fashion. Most Africans, especially the youth, know what progressive diplomacy and partnerships look like. But time is of the essence. The effective constitutional coup taking place in Senegal cannot be allowed to unfold.