ANC faces historic defeat in general election, according to surveys
• Political landscape may shift
The ANC is expected to lose its electoral majority in the general election, Standard Bank’s early forecasts show. This is the latest survey showing the ruling party is on course to suffer its worst electoral performance since the end of apartheid, heralding a dramatic shift in the SA’s political landscape.
The ANC, in power since 1994 under the leadership of Nelson Mandela and his successors, has been steadily losing its support nationally, amid widespread discontent over corruption, poor delivery of basic services and a stagnant economy that has led to one of the world’s worst unemployment rates.
According to a presentation by Standard Bank chief economist Goolam Ballim, the ANC is likely to pick up 47.5% of the vote, a scenario likely to have little impact on policy certainty. The DA would boost its electoral fortunes to about 23% while the EFF is likely to show little to no growth at about 11%, according to the presentation.
The Standard Bank forecast is more or less consistent with other surveys that have shown a similar trend of the ANC losing ground to the EFF and other smaller parties such as the IFP and Action SA, a relatively new anti-corruption party led by former Johannesburg mayor Herman Mashaba.
The latest survey, by market research firm Ipsos, shows ANC electoral support falling to 38.5% in the 2024 national and provincial elections, compared with 57.60% in 2019 and 45.59% in 2021.
The poll, conducted from October to December 2023, also show that the EFF, the thirdlargest biggest party by seats in the National Assembly, is poised to shoot past the DA as official opposition or second-largest party.
The EFF, founded about a decade ago by former ANC youth leader Julius Malema, is estimated to increase to 18.6%, while the DA support is estimated to fall to 17.3% from 21.62% in 2021 municipal polls and 20.77% in the 2019 national election.
According to a Wits University survey, the ANC faces a historic defeat, with only 42% of registered voters who intend to vote supporting it. The DA and the EFF trail behind with 19% and 16% respectively, while the rest of the vote is split among smaller parties, many of which are fading away.
The results suggest that there could be no outright winner of this year’s general election, paving the way for the formation of coalition government at national and provincial levels, uncharted territory for postapartheid SA.
The Multiparty Charter of SA, a DA-led alliance of opposition parties that aims to challenge ANC dominance, is estimated to garner a third of the vote, according to Ipsos.
However, the poll — involving 3,600 face-to-face interviews — found that about 10% of the registered electorate are undecided or unwilling to disclose their voting preferences, a sizeable and decisive chunk that could affect the outcome of the election.
Plagued by internal division, factionalism and financial woes, the ANC has acknowledged its declining popularity and vowed to renew itself and regain the trust of the voters.
President Cyril Ramaphosa, re-elected for second term in an internal party contest in 2022, has promised to implement economic reforms, fight corruption and strengthen state institutions. But his reform agenda has faced resistance from some of his rivals, who are aligned to his scandal-plagued predecessor Jacob Zuma and accused of systemic looting of public resources by his friends, the Guptas.
Zuma announced in December, the last month of the Ipsos survey, that he will back a new party, Umkhonto WeSizwe (MK), which claims to represent former liberation fighters and the poor. The MK party could further erode the ANC support base, especially in KwaZuluNatal, where Zuma still commands a loyal following.
RURAL FIREWALL
ANC electoral woes could also be attributed to a weak economy, the fragile prospects of which were whacked by the pandemic, tossing millions of city working-class families into poverty.
Still, the party’s social welfare programme may have helped its large rural following overlook its governance issues. The ANC enjoys a loyal support base in Limpopo and the Eastern Cape.
“In the last three elections, the ANC declined by 4% in each election. In order for it to decline by more than that, a significant development would have to happen. Yes, the ANC has challenges in the Western Cape, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, but its rural firewall is holding strong in Limpopo and Eastern Cape,” said election analyst Wayne Sussman.
“I would not be writing off the ANC at this stage. The voters’ roll has not increased by much, which means the overwhelming majority of people in that roll voted for the ANC in 2019. I don’t think all is lost for the ANC.”
Voter turnout, which has been declining over the years, would be a crucial factor in determining the outcome of the election. “The pivotal factor in this election hinges on voter turnout on the election day. Several analyses indicate that anticipating a high voter turnout may not be realistic, largely attributed to widespread despondency regarding the country’s situation and low levels of trust in politicians and political parties,” Ipsos states.
According to Ipsos’ current modelling, a low voter turnout will mean that about 39%-41% of the registered electorate turns out to vote; a medium turnout that 55%-57% of the registered electorate turns out to vote; and a high turnout that 69%-71% of the electorate turns out to vote.
In the event of a higher voter turnout, the ANC could get 44%, DA 20.2% and EFF 18.5%. With a medium voter turnout, the ANC could bag 45%, DA 20.6% and EFF 17.7%. In the worst-case scenario of a lower voter turnout, the governing party could muster 46.3%, DA 21% and EFF 16.7%.
The Electoral Commission of SA said on Tuesday after the final registration weekend that the voters’ roll stands at 27.4-million. The economic hub of Gauteng remains the province with the biggest voting population at 6.4-million, followed by KwaZulu-Natal at 5.7-million and the Eastern Cape with 3.4-million.
OUTDATED
However, opposition parties, which are positioning themselves as viable alternatives, offering different visions for the country’s future, seem indifferent about the snapshot of public opinion, which may change in the run-up to the elections depending on campaign manifestos and events of the parties.
“The Ipsos polls have been wrong before every election I can remember,” said Helen Zille, DA federal chair.
DA head of elections Greg Krumbock said the Ipsos was outdated. “If you look at their numbers they have people who won’t vote or won’t participate in the poll. It tends to underestimate parties support … Ipsos does not have a reliable methodology. It doesn’t align with our own polling,” he said.
“Our polling is done by IRR [SA Institute of Race Relations], Social Research Foundation; noone takes Ipsos seriously any more because they are so not aligned with other polling companies, they don’t have an effective way to account for people who don’t have a party to support.”
Nelson Mandela University political analyst Prof Ntsikelelo Breakfast said: “The quality of any research depends on the methodology used. I’m always critical of agreeing with findings, without knowing how researchers arrived at findings. In principle, I agree the ANC could be below 50% in the election. The writing is on the wall. The possibility of ANC getting less than 50% is not far-fetched.”
Stellenbosch University political analyst Prof Amanda Gouws said: “I think the Ipsos survey reflects a trend over the past year, and it reflects people’s dissatisfaction with the bad service delivery and bad governance of the ANC. We need to also understand there will be a lot of promises made in the state of the nation address [on Thursday]. People are fickle, they change their minds the closer we get to elections.
“If they don’t see an alternative to the ANC they will again vote for party loyalty or they won’t vote at all. The closer we get to the election the more unpredictable it will be.”
EFF spokesperson Sinawo Thambo said: “The EFF has not conducted any internal polling, but we are glad that objective institutions such as Ipsos are beginning to reveal a glimpse of the coming reality.”