Hottest January yet — and a year of overshooting the 1.5°C target
The world has just experienced its warmest January on record, marking the first 12-month period in which temperatures averaged more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial times, the EU’s climate change monitoring service said on Thursday.
Already 2023 was earth’s hottest year in global records going back to 1850, as humancaused climate change and El Niño, the weather pattern that warms surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, pushed temperatures higher.
“It is a significant milestone to see the global mean temperature for a 12-month period exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures for the first time,” said Matt Patterson, an atmospheric physicist at the University of Oxford.
CONSEQUENCES
The previous warmest January was in 2020, according to Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) records, which go back to 1950.
Countries agreed at UN climate talks in Paris in 2015 to keep global warming well below 2°C and aim to limit it to 1.5°C, a level regarded as crucial to prevent the most severe consequences.
The first 12-month period of exceeding 1.5°C does not yet mean the Paris goal has been missed, as the UN agreement refers to an average global temperature over decades. But some scientists have said the 1.5°C target can no longer realistically be met and have urged governments to act faster to cut CO2 emissions to limit the extent of overshooting.
“Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way to stop global temperatures increasing,” said C3S deputy director Samantha Burgess.
At the same time, economic weakness and political pressures are challenging the determination of governments to implement policies to curb greenhouse gases as politicians strive for re-election in a bumper year for democratic elections.
EL NIÑO
Every month since June 2023 has been the world’s hottest on record, compared with the corresponding month in previous years. US scientists have said 2024 has a one-in-three chance of being even hotter than last year, and a 99% chance of ranking in the top five warmest years.
El Niño began to weaken in January. Scientists have indicated that it could shift to the cooler La Niña counterpart later in 2024. Still, average global sea surface temperatures last month were the highest for any January on record.
Parts of South America are experiencing blistering temperatures.
Argentina endured a heatwave from January 21 to 31, while the Chilean capital of Santiago registered its third-hottest temperature on record on January 31, climbing above 37°C.
Such heat in central Chile caused deadly wildfires that killed at least 131 people in early February.