Tired and unconvincing campaign talk

As always in a general election year, the state of the nation address in February is not the real one. The real address is delivered by the president after the election, usually around June. That is the one that should detail the policy priorities of the new administration and make concrete commitments to deliver on them.

President Cyril Ramaphosa’s address on Thursday was essentially the starting gun to the ANC’s election campaign. That should have come as no surprise. If anything it was a relief that he did not exploit the opportunity to announce any new votecatching grants or programmes to burden SA’s cash-strapped public purse.

But even as a campaign speech Ramaphosa’s state of the nation address was far from being a runaway success. It sounded like his administration was tired of itself, with little new or creative to say. Worse, it sounded out of touch, eliciting shouts of “Cyril in Wonderland” from various quarters.

In SA’s 30th year of democracy, Ramaphosa rightly zeroed in on the achievements of the ANC government since the end of apartheid in 1994. The achievements are formidable and it is important to remind those born after the first democratic election, the “born frees”, how life has changed since apartheid. It is as important to remind those born under apartheid too.

Apartheid ’ s legacy is going to be with us for some time to come. But three decades on we cannot blame apartheid for SA’s woes as some are wont to do. And it is worth reminding South Africans that not only do we have a democracy that is one of the strongest in emerging markets, but we also have massively broader access to free primary healthcare and education, and to water, electricity and shelter than we had before 1994.

However, that makes it all the more tragic that this level of access is not matched by reliable electricity and water supply or quality health and education. It makes it all the more tragic too that while so much has been achieved to transform the economy since 1994, and so much has been done to reduce poverty, so little has been achieved in terms of providing jobs to the millions of South Africans able and willing to work.

Ramaphosa highlighted the 26-million people who receive social grants — almost half the population. But that is arguably a symptom of the ANC government’s failure to grow the economy and provide livelihoods, not a mark of success. Likewise themillions of students who depend on student grants, because their families cannot afford to send them to university.

It was legitimate, and heartening, for Ramaphosa to highlight how much is better now than it was then. But his failure to acknowledge how far the ANC has squandered those advantages reflected his inability to appreciate the tough realities South Africans live with now. Instead of highlighting the progress of the past 30 years, his story of the fictionally cheerful child of democracy, Tintswalo (“gratitude”), had the effect of outraging people because it seemed so out of touch with the plight of so many other children in SA.

The president did talk about load-shedding, crime and corruption, poor service delivery and the failure of SA’s logistics system. And he did make the usual promises to fix these. But instead of holding himself and his government accountable, he tended to blame external events or state capture for the government ’ s current failures.

Ramaphosa inherited a poisoned chalice when he took office after several years of state capture. He also had the Covid-19 pandemic to contend with. But he has acted far too slowly to undo the damage and turn SA around. And the sad truth is that SA has deteriorated markedly during the almost six years of the Ramaphosa administration.

Economic growth has averaged hardly more than 0.5%, for a population growing at 1.5% so living standards have rapidly gone backwards. The unemployment rate has climbed from 27% to 32%. The public debt has ballooned from R2.5-trillion to around R5-trillion. Foreign investors have cut their holdings of local government bonds from more than 40% in the early days of Ramaphoria to 25%. Eskom’s energy availability factor has plummeted and stage 6 power cuts returned soon after the state of the nation address. Transnet’s collapse has become a major constraint on exports and the economy.

Election polling is not looking great for the ANC but there is little doubt the party, and Ramaphosa, will form the government after the election, even if it is as part of a coalition. We can but hope that the state of the nation address round two after the election has more to offer than round one. And even more than a convincing speech from the president, we need urgent action.