Numbers may leave Federal Reserve unmoved on rates
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50% range at the end of its January 30-31 policy meeting, but said it would consider reducing it once policymakers are more confident inflation will continue falling toward the US central bank’s 2% target. Upcoming data on inflation, jobs and consumer spending will shape the timing of that decision.
The Fed is to hold its next policy meeting on March 19-20. Some of the numbers that will inform the Fed’s decision.
INFLATION (CPI released February 13)
The consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.1% year on year in January, down from 3.4% the previous month, but the latest inflation reading was higher than analysts had expected. The core rate, excluding food and energy costs, remained unchanged at 3.9% in another reminder that the Fed’s inflation battle may last longer than anticipated. Rising housing costs contributed to the bulk of the increase. While recent data revisions may have pushed the number higher, it again postpones what Fed policymakers hope will be a coming decline in housing costs.
PCE (Release PCE February 29)
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, by which the Fed measures inflation, rose 0.2% in December from the prior month, in line with economists’ expectations and translating to an annualised pace in keeping with the central bank’s 2% target.
On a three-month and sixmonth annualised basis, underlying core PCE inflation excluding food and energy prices is running below target, the data showed, and from a year ago the increase was 2.9%, the smallest rise since March 2021.
EMPLOYMENT (Released February 2; next release March 8)
US companies added 353,000 jobs in January. That was up from the [ higher] revised gain of 333,000 jobs in December.
The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%.
Fed officials have become more comfortable with the idea that continued strong job growth could still allow inflation to fall. But the growth in January was nearly double what economists had expected, and the job gains occurred across a broad set of industries, dispelling concern that hiring had become too focused.
The latest report may not shift views greatly at the Fed about the coming path of inflation, but it may do little to advance arguments for cutting rates sooner rather than later.
Wage growth jumped to an annual 4.5% after showing signs of cooling. Fed chair Jerome Powell has said wage growth adjustments could take place over time, and recent strong productivity gains help mute any impact that wage increases may have on prices.
Still, the January level is well above the 3.0%-3.5% range that most policymakers view as consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
JOB OPENINGS (Released January 30; next release March 6)
Powell keeps a close eye on the US labour department’s job openings and labour turnover survey (JOLTS) for information on the imbalance between labour supply and demand, and particularly on the number of job openings for each person who is without a job but seeking one.
The ratio had been falling steadily towards its pre-pandemic level, but has risen in the last two months and remains above 1.4-to-1, higher than the 1.2-to-1 level seen before the health crisis. Other aspects of the survey, like the quits rate, have edged back to pre-pandemic levels.
RETAIL SALES (Released January 17; next February 15):
Retail sales rose 0.6% in December, yet another in what has been a string of “upside surprises” the economy delivered over the course of 2023.
The surge in spending foreshadowed the far-strongerthan-expected 3.3% estimate for annualised fourth-quarter GDP growth released on January 25. Fed policymakers had been anticipating signs the aggressive rate hikes they delivered between March 2022 to July 2023 were trimming overall demand for goods and services, but that progress has been hard to detect.
THE LATEST REPORT MAY NOT SHIFT VIEWS GREATLY AT THE FED ABOUT THE COMING PATH OF INFLATION, BUT IT MAY DO LITTLE TO ADVANCE ARGUMENTS FOR CUTTING RATES SOONER ...