Africa will experience a year of mixed fortunes in 2024

Africa’s dynamic, youthful population and civil society will challenge autocratic misrule and strive to fulfil the continent’s huge potential in 2024.

Its “soft power” will shape global culture through lyrical writers, Afrobeats, Nollywood and sporting superstars, with citizens of Global Africa set to shine at the Paris Summer Olympics.

However, the continent will be forced to focus disproportionately on challenges of conflict and climate change. Amid fears of regional drought, Southern Africa’s dominant liberation parties will stubbornly seek to cling to power, with SA’s weakened governing ANC determined to cobble together a governing coalition after the 2024 polls.

For the first time in 30 postapartheid years, its support could fall below 50%, from a high of 69% in 2004. A failure to tackle increasing graft, and the deterioration of electricity, road, rail and port infrastructure, have contributed to a sense of atrophy, shattering the myth of “SA exceptionalism”.

Governing parties are expected to triumph in polls in Botswana and Namibia. Having spent $1bn staging the Africa Cup of Nations football tournament, Ivory Coast’s president, Alassane Ouattara, could enjoy a political bounce from his country winning the tournament.

With the exit of military brass hats in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso from the Economic Community of West African States, regional integration in West Africa faces its sternest test in 50 years.

Nigeria’s floating currency has lost 68% of its value, even as Abuja remains unable to stabilise its country and subregion. Democratic governance remains under siege across West Africa, with Senegalese president Macky Sall attempting to stage a civilian coup by awarding himself a constitutionally dubious 10month extension. He had earlier jailed popular opposition leader Ousmane Sonko for “corrupting the youth ”— the same charge for which Greek philosopher Socrates was executed in 399BC.

Driven by Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, the East African Community (EAC) has been one of the most successful of Africa’s regional schemes, helping to connect the subregion through railway, road, port and pipeline projects. Paradoxically though, Eastern Africa will remain threatened by widespread displacement, drought and famine, even as “warlordism” continues in Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia and Ethiopia amid some fragile truces.

Ethiopia’s attempts to recognise Somaliland’s sovereignty to gain access to the sea, will continue to raise tensions with Somalia. Rwanda’s Paul Kagame will award himself another 90% victory in presidential polls, having eliminated all serious opposition. His Western donors will yawn and look the other way.

Militia-infested eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Central African Republic will continue to struggle with enormous population displacements following Félix Tshisekedi’s second controversial electoral victory in five years. DRC’s “forum shopping” of replacing the EAC with Southern African Development Community peace-enforcers in the eastern DRC, while expelling UN peacekeepers, is unlikely to bring stability.

Military brass hats in Chad and Gabon will continue unconvincing democratic transitions, while long-ruling autocrats in Cameroon, CongoBrazzaville and Equatorial Guinea will seek to hang on to nepotistic power, even as their countries continue to decline.

North Africa will continue to suffer socioeconomic stagnation as entrenched military-backed regimes in Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia resist civil society efforts to liberalise autocratic political systems. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s predictable 90% presidential victory in the December polls will not stabilise a regime threatened by public debt of 89% of GDP and Israel’s continuing brutalities in the Gaza Strip, with which Egypt shares a border.

Morocco is recovering from 2023’s Atlas Mountains earthquake and building impressive infrastructure, but its historical conflict with Algeria over Western Sahara will ensure continuing regional tensions. Libya will remain politically divided, even as it hopes to avoid a repeat of last year’s devastating floods.

With a $1.1-trillion debt, crippling interest payments, increasing IMF tutelage and meddling external powers such as the US, France and Russia, Africa will continue to experience mixed fortunes in 2024.