Starting gun fired for SA’s most pivotal election

SA has set May 29 as the date for national and provincial elections, kicking off an official timeline for the electoral process as SA celebrates 30 years of democracy while facing multiple socioeconomic challenges.

In announcing the election date, the office of President Cyril Ramaphosa, who will be vying for a second term in what is slated to be the toughest electoral test yet for the ANC, encouraged all eligible voters “to fully participate in the vote”.

“Ramaphosa calls on all eligible voters to fully participate in this important and historic milestone of our democratic calendar,” the presidency said in a statement on Tuesday.

The announcement came after Ramaphosa, who swept to power on promises to revive the economy, put millions of South Africans into jobs and fight corruption, met the Electoral Commission of SA (IEC) and premiers of SA’s nine provides to discuss the state of readiness for the elections.

According to the Electoral Act, once the election date is proclaimed the voters’ roll is closed and the IEC has 90 days to hold the national and provincial ballots.

This year’s election comes as the country marks 30 years of democracy and at a time when it faces multiple challenges.

“Beyond the fulfilment of our constitutional obligation, these upcoming elections are also a celebration of our democratic journey and a determination of the future that we all desire,” the statement quoted Ramaphosa as saying.

Several surveys, including one by the ANC itself, have shown the ruling party will struggle to get a majority of the vote, a scenario that would herald a dramatic shift in SA’s political landscape.

The latest survey by market research firm Ipsos shows ANC electoral support falling to 38.5% from 57.6% in 2019. The poll also shows the EFF, SA’s third-largest party in the National Assembly, shooting past the DA as the official opposition.

The results of the snapshots of public opinion three months before the elections suggest a possible hung parliament, opening the door for coalitions at national and provincial levels, uncharted territory for postapartheid SA.

Even though the May election was widely expected, analysts say the date gives an edge to the bigger and older parties, which have more resources and experience than smaller and newer parties, which need more time to gain visibility and support from the voters.

“It makes the most sense in my opinion for the president because it is before winter, which is generally not a good time for major elections, especially in SA. Also, it would give upstart parties less chance to establish themselves.

“So, while it [may be] a difficult road for the governing ANC,

a May election is a better date for the ANC than an election in June, July or August,” electoral analyst Wayne Sussman said.

Comments by Sussman, who is a director at American Jewish Committee, a global advocacy group, were largely echoed by Paul Berkowitz, another election analyst and director at The Third Republic, a non-profit organisation.

“I think a date in May was largely expected. Wednesday, before winter to maximise turnout [is] par for the course. A later date would have been a bit better for the small and new parties to campaign more, so a May date should suit the bigger parties and those who started campaigning earlier,” Berkowitz said.

Six hundred political parties have registered to take part in the ballot, compared with 300 in previous elections in 2019, when only 79 nominees eventually appeared on the national and provincial ballots following an intensive verification process from the IEC, which included the required signatures and registration fees. That verification can now start in earnest.