Coalition viability at risk
As the ANC braces for a challenging election, polls conducted between October and this month by the Brenthurst Foundation, Social Research Foundation (SRF), Change Starts Now and Ipsos paint a sobering picture.
Averaging 42.25% for the ANC, 23.38% for the DA, 15.53% for the EFF, 5.97% for the IFP, 3.65% for ActionSA and 2.05% for the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) (my own calculations), these results mark a significant decline in ANC support since 2019. Yet they were conducted before the Jacob Zuma-backed MK party was launched.
The SRF’s most recent poll in KwaZulu-Natal shows MK garnering support in the mid-20% range (which translates to about 5% nationally), mainly at the expense of the ANC, which will undoubtedly trigger alarm in the ANC.
The SRF’s Frans Cronje suggests MK may be polling nationally at 9%-10%, an opinion echoed by DA campaign manager Greg Krumbock, who estimates MK’s support at 8%-9% based on its own polling.
Introducing this level of support for MK to the polling averages mentioned above, the ANC’s support could dip to a previously unimaginable level in the high 30%. While these numbers still need to be confirmed by official polls, were this trend to persist it would have a profound effect on the SA political landscape.
This scenario could also result in highly turbulent coalition negotiations, agreements and governments, as no single party or pre-election coalition (such as the multiparty charter and SA Rainbow Alliance) would come close to securing a majority in the National Assembly.
The ANC is still the most likely anchor for a broad coalition given the multiparty charter and EFF plus MK’s completely incompatible policies. Herein lies the potential turbulence, as all of these major opposition parties are utilising a fundamentally anti-ANC campaigning platform, meaning they would risk alienating their voter base should they enter into coalition with the ANC.
With the ANC’s decline and the popularity of anti-ANC rhetoric, the viability of a stable coalition government avoiding the instability seen at local government level hangs in the balance. Neil du Plooy Cape Town