England looks to aerial assault against Ireland
England coach Steve Borthwick’s flirtation with a relatively more creative attacking game was exposed horribly in defeat to Scotland and he is likely to return to his tried and tested kicking approach to try to tame a rampant Ireland on Saturday.
Other than a well-crafted early first-phase try by Fraser Dingwall, England failed to deliver the new aspects of attack that Borthwick had promised to “layer on” and they looked toothless and confused in a final quarter having been carved open three times by Duhan van der Merwe in a 30-21 defeat.
England find themselves as 4-1 outsiders on their own Twickenham patch, with Ireland a 6-1 shot to make it four championship wins in a row in the fixture. A bonus-point win for Ireland will secure the title with a week to spare and send them into their final game at home to Scotland on a high as they seek a second successive Grand Slam.
They would be the first country to manage that in the Six Nations era and only the third after France (1997-98) and England (1991-92) in the last 100 years. Former British & Irish Lions captain Sam Warburton said another convincing Grand Slam would make them the best Six Nations team of all time.
An Irish win would also set a Six Nations record of 12 successive victories, dating back to their defeat by France in the second game of 2022.
Those numbers are a fair reflection of how Ireland are dominating European rugby, as are the scoring statistics that come from their relentlessly accurate attacking game. In the past three years in the Six Nations, they average 35 points and almost five tries a game while conceding 1.4 per match.
The Times newspaper crunched the numbers on Tuesday to try to find a weakness in their game and found that in the four defeats they have suffered in their last 36 Tests, the teams that beat them kicked an average of 31 times for 965m — about 50% more than teams who lost against them while kicking an average of 22 times for 633m.
Successful teams also kept things narrow, playing wider than first receiver 17% of the time compared to 28% for losing sides.
Borthwick, will be aware of these numbers, along with the comparable figures for England’s attack. It looks likely he will revert to the kick-focused “keep it tight” approach that served him so well in the World Cup. That means he is likely to stick with kicker extraordinaire George Ford at flyhalf, despite Marcus Smith being available for the first time in the championship after injury.
Likewise, scrumhalf Danny Care will be crossing his fingers that he gets to lead the team out for his 100th cap, even with regular World Cup starter Alex Mitchell back in the frame.
The experiment of bringing in Furbank at fullback could also prove a short-term one, with Freddie Steward set for a probable recall.
Twickenham fans hoping for a start for fizzing winger Immanuel Feyi-Waboso when Borthwick names his team on Thursday are also likely to be disappointed as the coach holds the defensive capabilities of Elliot Daly and Tommy Freeman in high regard.