Leaked list hints at cabinet shakeout

• Several serving ministers may have to make way to younger ones higher up

The cabinet line-up could be significantly different and younger after May 29, especially if the ANC loses its majority, with the leaked ANC candidate list suggesting several serving ministers might not make the cut.

President Cyril Ramaphosa may be under pressure to replace many ministers, including senior ones, with younger politicians who are higher up on the governing party’s list of preferred candidates for parliament.

The 200-candidate list shows the party has ignored the recommendations of its integrity committee, choosing instead to include many implicated in state capture or tainted with corruption scandals.

But there has been little if any response from the market, which seems mainly to be concerned that Enoch Godongwana — who comes in at only 62 on the ANC list — should continue as finance minister. “The line that Godongwana is holding on fiscal discipline is important,” said Sanlam Investments fixed-income portfolio manager James Turp, who added any uncertainty would pose risks for the market.

Deputy finance minister David Masondo, who at 49 is almost two decades Godongwana’s junior, is much higher up the list at 11th. International relations & co-operation minister Naledi Pandor, 70, is at number 86 while her younger deputy, Alvin Botes, is ranked 24th.

Health minister Joe Phaahla, 67, is not on the list, while higher education minister Blade Nzimande made it only into 70th place and his deputy, Buti Manamela, is 17th. A key Ramaphosa appointment, electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa made it in at 45.

It is the president’s constitutional prerogative to decide on his cabinet, but how many MPs he has to choose from will depend on how many seats the ANC wins. This will be complicated by a loss of majority and needing to form a coalition government that includes parties who would be likely to demand cabinet seats of their own.

The ANC has called on the Electoral Commission of SA (IEC) to investigate the leak of its preferred candidate list. The MK party’s list was also leaked.

The IEC said in a statement on Saturday: “Indications are that the data emanated from internal system-generated reports within the Electoral Commission. To this end, the commission has directed an inquiry to establish the circumstances and identity of the source of the unauthorised disclosure.”

Meanwhile, some of those accused of benefiting from state capture, including mineral resources & energy minister Gwede Mantashe, sport, art & culture minister Zizi Kodwa and deputy minister of human settlements David Mahlobo, were all so highly nominated by ANC structures that they are high up on the list of the party’s preferred candidates for parliament.

Former health minister Zweli Mkhize is also high on the list, potentially making it difficult for Ramaphosa not to return him to the cabinet. Mkhize had to resign after the Special Investigating Unit (SIU) made an adverse finding against him over the R150m Digital Vibes tender, but he has yet to be charged over the allegations that he put pressure on department officials to award it.

The decision to include those implicated in state capture has been a bone of contention, and is

expected to test the unity and cohesion of the party. Its rules do not exclude those who are accused in any report from standing for public office unless they have been criminally charged in a court of law.

Any decision to exclude those accused of state capture from its provincial and national candidate lists would have been seen as effectively extending the remit of the party’s step-aside rule as none of those accused has been charged in court.

The rand has been responding primarily to global factors in recent weeks but there has been some risk aversion going into the election. Turp said any uncertainty about the finance minister would raise questions about fiscal discipline and pose risks for the market.

“Without this fiscal discipline and economic growth, SA will not be able to handle the costs of financing debt, and plans to implement things like [National Health Insurance],” he said.

Markets did not react to news last week that public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan would retire. “There has not been any major correction trend in the state-owned entities under Gordhan’s tenure,” said Turp.