Party chief charisma still sways votes, but Ramaphosa’s has been in decline

Charisma rather than policy appears to be what dictates the success of a party in elections — the face that is on the ballot.

After the 2019 national elections then ANC head of elections, Fikile Mbalula, said had Cyril Ramaphosa not been the face on the ballot the party would have posted a disastrous performance . It would have seen party support drop to 40% instead of the 57% it managed to garner.

Will Ramaphosa’s face on the ballot save the ANC from going below the 50% mark this time? Political analyst at Nelson Mandela University Ongama Mtimka said: “No leader of the ANC, whether new or old, will save the party from a sub-50% performance as there are too many factors working against the ANC brand at the moment.

“Ramaphosa is, however, still more popular than the party and this will surely be beneficial.”

However, Mtimka believed the top brass in the ANC needed to re-evaluate their role in the government after the elections. “They need to consider if they should leverage their position to give the party a new lease on life by putting forward a new president and deputy president for the state.”

Political analyst Sanusha Naidu said: “Ramaphosa is seen as an indecisive president and people are frustrated with the very long-winded, procrastinated approach to his presidency. However, his indecisiveness won’t have much bearing on the ANC’s support. Surveys have, however, shown that his popularity has declined.”

She believed the inflection point for the ANC was now and was based mostly on whether the party could comfortably garner more than 50% of the votes.

When it comes to the official opposition, political analyst Gareth van Onselen said: “Though the DA has recovered and consolidated its position since 2019’s decline, not enough voters know who John Steenhuisen is. Campaigning for the 2024 polls will assist. However, he is definitely behind the curve when it comes to popularity.

“The DA in 2014 set a target of getting 30% of the votes. Ten years later and it has yet to achieve it. This seems like a threshold it cannot cross.”

Mtimka said: “Steenhuisen finds himself in a rather precarious position as more parties similar to the DA and even splinter parties of the DA have arisen. Steenhuisen is playing a caretaker role rather than [providing] the leadership that may pioneer the next growth trajectory.”

On the third-largest party, the EFF, Mtimka said: “Julius Malema’s personality and organisational machinery will ensure growth of the EFF and this will keep the party growing until the 2026 local elections.

“Personalities, charisma and popularity of political leaders will remain important factors when voting for a political party when it comes to the electorate,” he said.

Naidu held the view that “when you vote, you vote for a political party and not just the leader. However, people tend to identify with personalities, especially those they see on their screens all the time as the face of the party.

“We must move away from the notion that parties can only survive when they have very charismatic leaders. What we need to ask is whether a charismatic leader is synonymous with a leader that is able to deliver,” she said.

Van Onselen said in some cases the party brand was bigger than the leader, as in the case of Steenhuisen and the DA. But in other instances the face campaigning was bigger than the party brand — as was the case with former president Jacob Zuma and the Umkhonto WeSizwe (MK) party.

Political analyst and acting executive director at Rivonia Circle Lukhona Mnguni said: “The face on the ballot does not have much sway with voters, but what it does do is serve as an identifiable marker for the party, to ensure that you are indeed voting for your party of choice.

“Most voters make the decision on who to vote for before even entering the polling stations. By virtue of being the leader of the political party, they will be more visible on the campaign trail and in the media.”

Naidu said political parties were reflecting on whether their viability was only sustainable by the personalities in their ranks. Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) research “shows that political parties are entering their own age of introspection where they are trying to establish their stable base and to find their identity”.

The two decades of the HSRC’s Social Attitudes Survey to October 2023 show a drastic decline in confidence and trust in politicians, political parties, courts and the government. Trust in the national government toppled from 69% in 2004 to 23% in 2022.

In addition, the survey found that satisfaction with democracy fell from 48% in 2003 to 22% in 2022. Despite this the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation’s SA Reconciliation Barometer for 2023 showed that 70% of the respondents indicated that they were likely to vote in this year’s national and provincial elections.

The barometer shows a drop in confidence in the ANC, with preference for and confidence in the DA level. The preference for and confidence in the EFF has increased from 11%-13% to 20%32% from 2017 to 2023.

WE MUST MOVE AWAY FROM THE NOTION THAT PARTIES CAN ONLY SURVIVE WHEN THEY HAVE VERY CHARISMATIC LEADERS

50% what the ANC needs to get but might be unable to

30% what the DA aimed to get in 2014 but has been unable to