Worry about KwaZulu-Natal

Thankfully, all the major parties have launched their election manifestos without major incidents of violence in the fiercely contested KwaZulu-Natal. We commend the ANC, the EFF and IFP for showing political tolerance in the build-up to the launches at Moses Mabhida Stadium. The only disappointing incidents were the deaths of ANC supporters in a bus accident, and, this weekend, the injuries sustained by IFP supporters in bus accidents outside Durban. The EFF even offered condolences to the ANC on its loss.

However, the dangers of violence in the run-up to the May 29 poll are still around. The province has a troubling history of political violence. Run by the ANC, it is also awash with illegal weapons. Even though the days of mass killings among ANC and IFP supporters are gone, the killing of politicians continues. Victims are the usual suspects: ANC and IFP politicians. This is despite the fact that interparty relations have thawed over the years. The killings are mostly intraparty.

There are also new factors that should make us worry about the prospects of pre-election violence. The reason for the focus on KwaZulu-Natal is simple. In electoral terms, the province is significant. Whoever does well in or wins KwaZulu-Natal benefits from the national share of votes too.

Unlike in previous elections, there are new variables at play. For a start, the amendments to electoral laws have introduced independent candidates. Most of these candidates are defectors from the major parties including the ANC, EFF, IFP and DA.

Worrying signs of political animosity, including damaging marquees of rival parties, have emerged in recent municipal byelections. Fortunately, the skirmishes have not claimed lives or resulted in serious injuries.

In December the ANC split again when Jacob Zuma, its former president, formed the MK party, which is giving the ANC a run for its money.

However, the animosity between him and the ANC is growing. In February the ANC summarily suspended his membership of the party after two months of trying to ignore him. But his packed rallies forced Luthuli House to change course.

Next week his party’s officials will meet ANC opponents in court. The high court is due to hear the ANC’s grievance that the MK party is illegally using the name associated with its former military wing, Umkhonto we Sizwe. This will be a civil fight among lawyers and unarmed officials. In the battleground that is campaigning for votes, there will be no civility.

Uniquely, this season brings its own challenges. The ANC in the province and at the national level has shown ineptitude in its capacity to deal with internal strife. In July 2021, the ANC watched helplessly as Zuma’s supporters gathered at his Nkandla homestead days before his arrest for contempt of court. Hundreds lost their lives in the ensuing mayhem. The Zulu royal house is at its weakest to provide any leadership.

KwaZulu-Natal must be considered a hotspot, and police must be deployed to ensure peace before, during and after the vote.