Business Day

Fast food takes a body blow

- Futureworl­d

June 15 2028

Four years ago, 800-million people globally were classed as obese, including 40% of the US population, and Novo Nordisk was the most valuable company in Europe. With Novo’s introducti­on of an affordable, tablet-form GLP-1 in early 2025, effortless weight loss was no longer the exclusive remit of celebs, tech billionair­es and influencer­s.

GLP-1 (pronounced gulpone), or Glucagon-like peptide 1, is a naturally occurring hormone that stimulates insulin secretion and inhibits glucagon release, regulating blood sugar levels and suppressin­g appetites by creating a feeling of being full. People taking GLP-1 consume 20%30% fewer calories, and lose an average of 13kg in the first 12 weeks.

With accessible, affordable GLP-1 pills arriving at the peak of the global obesity crisis and fast gaining ubiquitous adoption, the world now looks very different. Countries such as the US and UK now have obesity rates of under 15%, and most of these remaining individual­s are plus sized by choice.

Public health services are finally coming up for air after almost collapsing under the strain of obesity-related comorbidit­ies, but drug companies and medical device providers are having to find new revenue streams as rates of sleep apnoea, kidney disease, heart disease and joint replacemen­ts wane.

The food industry has been turned on its head. The flywheel of ever more hyper-processed, high-calorie, moreish “junk” food has ground to a halt. With dwindling appetites, the allure of the drive-through just isn’t there any more. Fast food chains have reimagined their menus to tempt consumers to spend their lower calorie budgets at their establishm­ents, but the chokehold has been broken.

Early casualties Dunkin’ Donuts and Domino ’ s pizza were too slow to respond to the change in demand and folded by late 2027. Share prices of Burger King, Subway and Starbucks have been in steady decline but all are hanging on by providing new smaller-portion, nutrientde­nse menu options including juices, soups and smoothies.

Consumers are looking to maximise their nutritiona­l intake from the calories they consume, and healthy convenienc­e offerings such as Daily Harvest and Hello-Fresh are benefiting.

Previously a nonstarter, the idea of “food in a pill” is gaining traction. With appetites taking a dive, eating is increasing­ly utilitaria­n and a growing number of the “nouveau skinny” are choosing to get their daily nutrition and vitamins in the form of a convenient cocktail of pills.

The question no-one can answer is: what are the longterm effects of continuing to take these new-generation weightloss drugs? What happens when the world stops taking them? How long before the skinny bubble bursts? / First published on Mind-bullets on March 14 2024

FORGET ABOUT YOUR DIET

March 4 2027

Arevolutio­nary solution to the global obesity problem has been approved for human trials. Gene therapy company Verve Therapeuti­cs has developed a vaccine for, well, fat. Based on CRISPR DNA-editing technology, the new vaccine targets a gene expressed in the brain, which encodes a protein that regulates appetite. A simple jab switches the order of two nucleobase­s in our DNA, lowering our blood sugar response, and reversing the craving for more delicious food. After just a few forkfuls of pasta or a dozen French fries you can’t face another mouthful; but your appetite for lettuce and broccoli remains untouched, ensuring you get your vitamins and minerals.

This is a game-changer for everyone who has ever struggled to keep their weight in check, or been told to “exercise more and eat less”. Now you can take the vax against maxing out your body mass and eat whatever you like, whenever you like. Doctors, dietitians and health authoritie­s are rejoicing, as obesity is the number one lifestyle disease worldwide, and costs the economy trillions in lost productivi­ty, treatment, care and premature death.

With hundreds of millions of people eagerly awaiting the availabili­ty of the “fat jab”, Verve has issued a cautionary note. Lab tests have revealed that the vaccine requires a periodic “update” to switch the genes back to “normal” to avoid unpleasant side effects. As such, Verve will offer the treatment purely on a subscripti­on plan and failure to renew your subscripti­on will mean you lose all the benefits.

Purveyors of wonder diets, “fat-burning” supplement­s and exercise programmes guaranteed to help you lose weight and stay slim, are part of a trilliondo­llar slimming industry. They risk irrelevanc­e in the face of this new technology, with Verve becoming the next pharma mega-cap stock to dominate the market.

So, if you can afford the subscripti­on, forget the flab and take the jab. /First published on Mind-bullets on March 9 2023

DISCLAIMER

Despite appearance­s to the contrary, Futureworl­d cannot and does not predict the future.

The Mind-bullets scenarios are fictitious and designed purely to explore possible futures, challenge and stimulate strategic thinking.

DUNKIN’ DONUTS AND DOMINO ’ S PIZZA WERE TOO SLOW TO RESPOND TO THE CHANGE IN DEMAND AND FOLDED BY LATE 2027

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