Former Yemen president Saleh ‘orchestrating’ Hadi’s downfall

RIYADH: When Saudi Arabian jets struck Houthi positions in Yemen yesterday, they also hit forces loyal to a key figure who many Yemenis believe has orchestrated the present crisis from the shadows: former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, pictured.

Army units loyal to Saleh have fought alongside the Shia Houthi militiamen, often in civilian dress, as they swept southwards through Yemen’s highlands in recent weeks to advance on the port of Aden, where President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi is based.

Saleh’s continuing ability to deploy forces and take a seat at any negotiating table will prove pivotal to Yemen’s future, given the former president’s wide support base in the army and bureaucracy.

However, the coming weeks may determine the fate of Yemen’s arch survivor, who once likened ruling his country to “dancing on the heads of snakes” and who outlasted numerous enemies by repeatedly proving the least-worst option for foreign powers.

Despite being forced to step down in 2012 under a Gulf-brokered transition plan following mass protests against his decades of rule, Saleh won immunity in the deal and has remained a powerful political player operating behind the scenes.

The decision to let him stay in Yemen three years ago now looks like a massive miscalculation by the very Gulf states now bombing his troops, and who along with Western countries now accuse Saleh of systematically undermining the transition.

Farea al-Muslimi, a researcher at Carnegie Middle East Institute, said: “Since the strikes hit bases that were in the hands of Saleh’s loyalists this is more of a blow to him and he’ll take it as a clear message that the Saudis are very displeased with him.”

They say he has backed the Houthis for months, helping to stop any serious army resistance when they seized the capital, Sanaa, in September.

They believe his ultimate aim is to help the Houthis defeat their common enemies, and then use his extensive political base to build a role as powerbroker before turning on the rebel group and installing his son, Ahmed Ali Saleh, as president.

In a conflict dripping with historical ironies, Saleh waged six wars against the Houthis from 2002-09 and was for many years an ally of convenience for Riyadh. Hadi served two decades as Saleh’s vice-president and was a general in his army during Yemen’s last civil war in 1994.

Those big switches of loyalty, which have come to define Yemen'’s complex and constantly shifting political landscape, were set in train by the 2011 Arab spring protests that ultimately led to Saleh’s fall from the presidency.

Hadi attempted to loosen Saleh’s grip on main parts of the armed forces, including crack Republican Guard units, with a military reorganisation in 2013, but the former president retains the loyalty of around a third of the army, analysts say. Those units, some of which have backed the Houthis in battles around Taiz and Marib, are better equipped than other parts of the army. – Reuters