ANC’s identity crisis is now plain for all to see
Back door out of ‘broad church’ is essentially to the Right or Left
LET’S start by remembering that the ANC has always called itself a “broad church” that has managed to encompass a wide variety of political and economic elements. We should also remember that liberation movements are known to falter when it comes time to transform into political parties. One reason for this is the need for a political party to have a distinct and coherent platform to offer the electorate. This is not easy when you are a coalition of the wounded from all across the political spectrum. The fact is that the unifying theme was always race, not a distinct or coherent platform.
So now we are watching an identity crisis in full bloom. The other day, Jackson Mthembu was scolding ANC MPs for boycotting a meeting chaired by Makhosi Khoza, and afterwards he dismissed her as chairperson of that committee.
Essentially there are two exits out of the ANC as it splits. One is to the Right and the other to the Left. When the party’s KwaZulu-Natal chairperson, Sihle Zikalala, scolds Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa for “abandoning the ANC” to go into the business sector, it suggests that Ramaphosa is not seen as a “radical” (to use the language of the Left). He is going to exit out the Right door, cosying up to a coalition with the DA, our answer to the “Alt-Right”.
Then there is a door to the Left, which has been opening and closing a lot with the exit of about half of the Labour unions, leaving Cosatu depleted and swelling the ranks of Saftu. It is led by commissar Zwelinzima Vavi, who Cosatu expelled.
Speaking of being expelled, a lot of ANC cadres have moved out this door into the EFF, starting with Julius Malema’s ejection as head of the ANC Youth League. Then the EFF split and there is a far-Left fringe called BFLF. The thing is that these two parties are going to bleed the ANC badly. Because they offer the electorate a distinct and coherent platform – based on land redistribution. This of course endears them to the rural poor, and in Zimbabwe-esque fashion, the masses who keep voting in the old liberation movement are out there, in the rural areas.
But South Africa is more urbanised and industrialised than Zimbabwe, so there are masses in the townships as well. They live in conditions that are more akin to those that Marx and Engels observed and detested. Many have jobs in mines or factories and there are unionised. For two decades, this Labour movement has been hijacked by the “broad church”. Vavi woke up to this first when he was leading Cosatu and started to speak out, only to be ejected. Malema cottoned on, as leader of the Youth League, and he too was ejected. These events bear witness to the fact that the ANC has become a party of crony capitalists.
So what will the SACP do? It has kept its options open to contest future elections in its own right. It has called for the departure of President Jacob Zuma, and then voted with the opposition parties in the no-confidence vote. The SACP is a major factor in this ANC identity crisis. Comrade Blade Nzimande will use the Left exit when the time comes, but he would rather be booted out like Vavi and Malema were, than choose to leave. Stay tuned.
Nzimande will become the senior leader on the Left. He is well known and well respected. His party has been vocal against corruption and waste, and yet with a disproportionate number of ministers in the cabinet, it is perceived as loyal – not as a renegade. Furthermore, this party, more than any other, is a role model for non-racialism. You can see it in the leadership, and almost any snapshot of a mixed cabinet composition means that the whites in the photo are SACP ministers. This is once again because the SACP is a party with a distinct and coherent platform. It is not just cobbled together like the ruling alliance. It represents the urban masses.
A united Left that bonds the urban masses with the rural masses is the ANC’s biggest nightmare. That is why it adopts smoke-screen phrases like “radical economic transformation” and “white monopoly capital” when it is really a gang of crony capitalists.
There is a joke going round about a summit meeting with Zuma, Ramaphosa and Nzimande. As they drive away in the limo, Ramaphosa leans forward and says to the chauffeur: “It is always better to keep to the Right, so turn right here.” Nzimande sits bolt upright and says: “No, comrade driver, it is always better to keep to the Left, so turn left here.” Zuma calmly leans forward and speaks into the chauffer’s ear: “It is always better to keep to the Left, so turn right here.”
That sums up the identity crisis.Will that door to the Right be used much? The municipal election results last year suggest that there will be some movement towards the DA, perhaps from the middle class. But the masses – who are left largely unemployed and landless – are going to leave through the Left exit. The swing vote will go Left.
A key question is whether the SACP will be welcomed by the parties and Labour organisations already formed on the Left? Or will they be treated with contempt? Perhaps this explains why the SACP would rather be expelled than leave of its own accord – so it can reinforce the existing coalition of the wounded.
And if the remaining ANC cannot cure the identity crisis, it may split into two large factions. We are already seeing that kind of tug-of-war in the ANC of KwaZulu-Natal.
In their 2014 book, Mashele and Qobo had a different take on the conventional “Right and Left”. They wrote that after the 2007 Polokwane conference, the ANC split into two camps – “vindictive triumphalists” and “soul-battered mourners”. They predicted that this would be the undoing of the party, because this split created a gridlock that allowed corruption to become even more severe.
“Corruption generally worms its way into organisations through members who are already inside, members who are counted among the most loyal and trusted cadres,” they wrote.
Their analysis does line up with ours – but leaves a key question unanswered: which of the two exits will those soul-battered mourners leave by? If the secret no-confidence vote is anything to go by, the numbers that will leave are on the rise. Some are being pushed and others are jumping, but trust is draining away fast.
Before long, the “vindictive triumphalists” will lose their majority. No one won 201 votes on August 8 (half of the 400 seats in this Parliament). And no party is likely to win 50% at the next election, either.
A UNITED LEFT THAT BONDS THE RURAL MASSES WITH THE URBAN MASSES IS THE ANC’S BIGGEST NIGHTMARE