ANC’s radical talk is all mere bluster

THE ONLY group being transformed is the Indian group. Can the ANC engineer radical economic transformation? No, it will be a failure. If the ANC couldn’t engineer an ordinary economic transformation of black and coloured groups over the past 23 years, how will radical transformation work?

If radical means more intensive, then even if the ANC employs only competent people of all races and stops corruption, which are both unlikely, it would fail. History has taught us that the shortest period a nation can reasonably transform is over 40 years. Singapore and the United Arab Emirates are examples. But the Singaporean economic policy was capitalistic and the quality of their human capital was and is high. The UAE has a huge oil income and a small population, thus a high per capita gross domestic product.

ANC leaders make public statements about taking people’s property without compensation, which surely scares off investors. Its racial-engineering policies in agriculture, mining and industry inhibit investment. Without an increase in investment, there will be no increase in jobs. Without an educated and skilled labour force, there will be neither higher wages nor economic transformation. Thus the rhetoric about radical economic transformation is nothing but bluster. Assuming the ANC remains in power for the next 20 years, black and coloured groups will see little improvement.

If radical means dispossessing whites of their property, then we have problems. First, the ANC, combined with the EFF and SACP, will not have the 67% required to amend the constitution. Second, I can’t see whites standing around while they are being dispossessed. There will be a risk of a Syria-type civil war with damaging prospects for the country. Third, radical redistribution has never worked. Zimbabwe and Venezuela show that it’s virtually impossible to transfer wealth. Mass starvation is normally the result, with the poorest suffering the most.