Political tension to continue next year
Zuma could be on way out as ANC factions vie for power
WITH talk of a cabinet reshuffle early next year, 2018 could turn out to be one of the most significant in post-apartheid South Africa. Analyst Ralph Mathekga said the political turbulence is likely to continue as the governing ANC has to satisfy both its factions.
“The year that has passed was tense. And that is expected to continue in 2018, although we foresee things being a little calmer. Jacob Zuma is a weakened leader and he can’t just do as he pleases. He might also feel betrayed, because he was thrown under the bus. He will not last long.”
Zuma’s recent announcement on free tertiary education will be the first challenge for the government, and it could also spell the rejuvenation of the #FeesMustFall movement.
“How this free education will be implemented is going to be a massive challenge. Little information has been given. How it will it be implemented and whether universities will be able to accommodate all those applying for tertiary education remains to be seen.”
The state capture probes and allegations of corruption in state-owned-entities (SOEs) will also be placed at the forefront. MPs are likely to call for investigations and commissions to investigate the corruption.
The country’s road ahead will be outlined at the ANC’s anniversary celebrations set for January 13 in the Eastern Cape.
ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa will deliver the keynote address, in which he is likely to touch on the economy, crime, unemployment and social challenges.
Opposition parties will start campaigning for the 2019 general elections. The DA will keep the pressure on the ANC in Parliament, but will at the same time make sure its activists are on the ground.
The DA has its own internal challenges, like the Cape Town mayor Patricia de Lille issue, which has to be resolved before the elections. A court battle is looming if the outcome doesn’t go De Lille’s way.
The DA is determined to bring the ANC under 50% support, and hopes to form coalitions with parties like the EFF.
“We can expect many campaigns by political parties. They need to stamp their authority and make themselves known in almost all the communities. The ANC needs to get Zuma out and allow Ramaphosa to lead the party and refocus the party’s strategy,” Mathekga said.
In Parliament, we can expect banter and disruptions, especially by the EFF. The party has made its mark by walking out of sittings, hurling insults and being thrown out of the House for disruptive behaviour.
“The parties will kick up a racket if Zuma is not gone soon. They will take the ANC to task and it will be nearly impossible for the ANC to fend off these attacks. They will be forced to do something about Zuma. Parties will also use key legislation before Parliament to promote their parties. There will be an enormous amount of campaigning in the year to come,” Mathekga said.
“Hopefully there will be some kind of gentlemen’s agreement between parties to make Parliament work in order to avoid all the drama we saw this year.”