Emily Jay could defy handicapper
THE Vaal Inside meeting tomorrow features a MR 94 Handicap for fillies and mares over 1 400m and Emily Jay could defy the handicapper again. This Jay Peg filly has struck as one with some class from day one and has come into her own this season, winning five times from seven outings.
The key has been a drop to 1 400m to a mile trips and her good turn of foot is then used from handy positions. She has a plum draw tomorrow, Strydom stays aboard and she is just three points higher in the merit ratings after her win last time out. Specialists over 1 400m always have to be respected as it is an in between distance and Rouge Allure is such a horse. The excellent Lyle Hewitson will get the most out of her from the plum number one draw.
Dame Kelly
Dame Kelly is a a typically progressive daughter of Dynasty and will make her presence felt, despite a wide draw. Those three should get punters through the exotics, although Noceur and Dame Eleanor should be considered for wider.
The meeting begins with a Maiden Juvenile Plate over 1000m and Firdoas should get punters off to a good start.
This Mike de Kock-trained Bernadini filly showed excellent speed on debut over 1 200m and was only just touched off. The horse she beat into third by 1,6 lengths came out and won the Grade 2 SA Fillies Nursery over 1160m next time out. Firdoas will also appreciate the step down to 1000m considering her speed, so is hard to oppose and will likely start at cramped odds.
The second is a moderate maiden over 1 400m and Stop And Stare makes most appeal having not been disgraced last time over this trip in a stronger field. He would probably prefer further as his best recent effort was over 1 800m but he is drawn on the right side and will be running all the way to the line.
D’Arrivee returns from a layoff and gelding having gone close when leading over 1 600m in December. He found betting support in that last event and started favourite, so should run well running fresh over a 200m shorter trip. Pachacuti could represent good place value as he invariably finishes well after being out the back and in a field like this capable of earning.
The third race over 1 400m is tough but the vote goes to Silvez. This big scopey sort will be improving all the time and was doing her best work late last time over this trip on the Standside after being caught wide from a wide draw. She now has a low draw, which is favourable by trends and has the high flying Lyle Hewitson aboard. Rubix is a daughter of Dynasty and will thus be improving all the time. She was not disgraced over this trip in her penultimate start against a better field than this but she does have a high draw which might not be in her favour.
Tortola beat Silvez the last time they met over this trip but there is now a reversal in draw fortunes.
Sing And Dance is hard to ignore as she moved up well to hit the front over 1 500m last time but then became a bit one paced.
She also over raced slightly in that race so will relish this slight step down in trip. Tricia has run two good races in her last two but will prefer further. Poormans Lady has started favourite in her last two starts over this trip and has a chance if not needing it after a layoff.
In the fourth over 1 400m Manitoba looks to be ideally distance suited and after running on well over 1200m last time will enjoy this step up in trip again. His draw will come in to seven if the reserve runners are scratched, which is not bad.
Vicomte
Vicomte is capable of a strong finish over shorter and is interesting stepped up in trip. Tokyo Drift has to be included having improved with blinkers and the consistent Shortstop and Humble Addict, who gets the blinkers on, can’t be ignored.
The value bet of the day could be Kentucky Blue in the sixth over 1 400m. This R1,1 million daughter of Dynasty took a while to get off the mark as she was either running over too short or badly drawn.
She now has a good draw over an ideal 1400m trip and looks to have been given a lenient opening handicapping mark by the handicapper.
In the seventh Colour Of Light looks capable of making it four wins from five starts as she has pace and a telling change of gear at the business end over this ideal 1 200m trip.
In the eighth race over 1 800m Tigerlace is made the best bet of the day. She has shown signs of class and this progressive sort is ideally distance suited and has a plum draw of three.