Instant solutions unlikely at summit
Trump wants to ‘get to know’ Kim and forge new relationship
AS US President Donald Trump sets off to meet the top leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), Kim Jong Un, US analysts expect the two leaders to focus on forging a relationship rather than trying to achieve a once-and-for-all solution to all concerns.
Trump and Kim are expected to “talk about everything”, from the de-nuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula and its verification process, to the US security assurances for and economic co-operation with the DPRK.
Trump termed his widely anticipated meeting with Kim as a “get-to-know-you” gathering, saying that “it’s going to be a process” to solve the problems considering decades of “hostility” and “hatred” between the two sides. He also said that probably more than one meeting was necessary, and he would consider inviting Kim to the US for further consultations.
Analysts listed domestic politics and economic development as the largest motivations of the two nations, adding that all parties concerned – not only the DPRK and the US – have made considerable efforts to make the Singapore meeting possible. “North Korea, South Korea, the United States and China have invested considerable time and effort in making the summit possible, so each has an incentive to keep the conversation open,” Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Darrell West told Xinhua. “It would be difficult for all involved if talks collapse and nothing takes place.”
The goal of the summit “should be to set an agenda – not to finalise a deal”, said Richard Haass, president of US think tank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). “Ideally, Pyongyang and Washington would agree on a course for negotiations, possibly one composed of a limited first phase followed by broader and more ambitious phases. Consistent with this, a near-term summit could lead to the establishment of two different US-North Korean (DPRK) working groups, one to explore a grand bargain, the other to hammer out something more modest,” he said. “Rather than taking an all-or-nothing approach, the United States would be taking two approaches: a more-for-more one, and a less-for-less one,” he said.
West added that “the most tangible result of the summit could be an agreement to keep talking and schedule another meeting [as] it may take several meetings to resolve the thorny issues of denuclearisation, verification and US assistance”.
Dan Mahaffee, senior vice-president and director of policy at the Centre for the Study of Congress and the Presidency, also did not see a detailed roadmap of the DPRK’s complete denuclearisation as being a possible outcome of this meeting.
Still “with the resumption of dialogue and, perhaps, clearer expectations, there seems to be a path forward”, said Mahaffee. Kyle Ferrier, an analyst at the non-profit Korea Economic Institute of America, said that “one of the areas where both sides have a great shared interest and seemingly found the most common ground to make future progress is a possible peace treaty… this is an obvious area to keep the momentum for diplomacy going”.
Most analysts said that numerous challenges would test Trump and Kim both in, and after, the meeting.
Melissa Hanham, a senior research associate on Non-proliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute in California, highlighted the lack of a rigorous inspections regime for the denuclearisation, saying the past such regimes in the DPRK have been bedevilled by mistrust between the DPRK and the US.
Meanwhile, Pyongyang believes in a larger sense of denuclearisation, which demands that not only the DPRK, but the whole peninsula, give up nuclear weapons. To Pyongyang, this means removing the threat of nuclear weapons.
According to the Council of Foreign Relations, “it’s not paranoia because, in addition to former threats to use nuclear weapons to attack North Korea, and the more recent talk of ‘decapitation’ of North Korean leadership, the United States still flies bombers and regularly conducts war games in the region”.
Vowing to keep its eyes “wide open” in the meeting, Washington would continue its sanctions on Pyongyang until it sees the complete denuclearisation, and “in the event diplomacy does not move in the right direction, these measures will increase”, Mike Pompeo, US Secreatary of State, said at a recent White House press briefing.