Casual Wear shapes as a banker
THE Vaal Outside track stages a nine race meeting tomorrow and punters should take note of any draw bias in the early events as it has been unpredictable at this venue recently.
The best bet comes in the second race where the R4 million filly Frankly by Frankel faces an uninspiring field over 1200m.
She made a good debut behind the subsequent Grade 2 Golden Slipper runner up Mazari.
She then disappointed in two features but now has her first run for the in-form grandfather-grandson combination of Ormond and Luke Ferraris.
Vega Vox could be the chief threat. She lost a length on debut over 1000m and was then green but was doing her best work late.
Being by Noble Tune she will relish the step up in trip and can reverse form with Seneca Falls, who was just ahead of her in that last race but had a clearer passage and was being caught late.
Winter’s Forge
The first leg of the PA over 1000m is the highest rated race and should be fought out by Winter’s Forge and Queen Laurie, who are the best in at the weights in this fillies and mares Conditions Plate.
Winter’s Forge is more reliable so can be made a PA banker.
Queen Laurie has more ability but is a quirky sort who costs herself sometimes at the start and needs to settle behind cover to show her best.
Casual Wear is chosen as a banker in the first leg of the Pick 6, but this is only because the Pick 6 has many difficult legs and a banker has to be chosen somewhere.
It is always risky to select a filly having her first run out of the maidens in a handicap, especially a young three-year-old merit rated above 80.
However, the form of some of her maiden runs, such as a 2,1 length second to subsequent Grade 1 Allan Robertson winner Mighty High, is good and the form of her maiden win has worked out very well indeed.
Ideally Ilha Da Var and the first-time blinkered Queen Of War should also be included in the Pick 6 but this will cut the percentages a lot.
Mount Keith is a potential banker in the first leg of the Jackpot considering the ease with which he won last time.
However, he was scratched from his last intended start on July 26 with an abnormal temperature and does face a six point merit rated raise so there are a couple of concerns.
Beyond him it is wide open and just about the whole field has to be included.
In the sixth race Seventh Rule is a most interesting runner with a 4kg claimer up.
He has a lot of pace and kept going recently in his maiden over 1400m to hold on.
He now has a 4kg claimer up and will likely attempt to gallop them into the ground, but it is debatable whether he will see out the trip.
Darkest Hour will be a big threat as he showed a return to form last week when going close over 1400m and his close up finish in the Dingaans is the stand out bit of form in this race.
Punters should consider going wider than those two though. The seventh is another tough race. Big Myth, an easy winner of a weak maiden last time, has scope for further improvement and is taken to beat Sovereign Reign, who has always been well regarded and is in fine form but he has to prove he stays the trip.
Colonel Bogey
Others like Front Rank, Colonel Bogey and Wildlife Safari will have to be considered too,
The eighth over 1600m looks to be a straight fight between two horses who should enjoy the step up in trip, Royal Future and Hot Chocolate.
The last leg of the Pick 6 is tough despite being a maiden. Tripple Z and Peapack should both do well. The one with the best form is Proud Dynasty, who is another Cape Town horse to join the Ashley Fortune yard.
However, he has reportedly bled twice and returns from a layoff.
Therefore, Power Of Place, Ready To Strike and possibly others will also have to be included in the exotics.