Can Lerena do it again?
GAVIN Lerena is the only jockey to have won the WSB Grand Heritage and could retain his crown on Saturday as he will be aboard the Johan Janse van Vuuren-trained favourite Mardi Gras.
The draw can play a significant part in this 1475m race and Lerena will be hoping from draw 26 the track runs like it did in 2016, towards the outside, as opposed to last year when the inside to middle inside seemed favourable.
Mardi Gras will need to beat 27 other competitors but is a worthy 33/10 favourite with the sponsors. The Oratorio grey was in the spotlight on his debut over 1000m at the Vaal in December as he was a R3,2 million purchase.
He did not disappoint when staying on strongly for third. He has always struck as one who would come into his own as a four-year-old.
That observation has proven correct as he began to impress late last season and in his reappearance this term he ran a fine race over 1 160m in just his sixth career start and his first as a gelding.
He is the one to beat carrying 56,5kg as he will relish the step up to 1475m and considering his class he is likely ahead of the handicapper off his 91 merit rating.
Janse van Vuuren won this race with Irish Pride in 2016. This now six-year-old won the race off a 92 merit rating and has dropped to a 91, which is effectively seven points lower if the across the board six point raise given in March is taken into account. He hasn't won for a year-and-a-half but has his third run after a layoff, so is not without hope.
Janse van Vuuren's third entry is Divine Odyssey, a progressive sort who likes to be handy and has a good kick.
He pecked at the start last time, which affected his chances following two wins, and he has a chance off a 91 merit rating.
Pietro Mascagni
The second favourite is Pietro Mascagni, a well regarded Mike de Kocktrained four-year-old who should come into his own this season.
This trip is sharper than ideal but he will have come on from his winning reappearance over 1450m and his class could pull him through from a nice middle draw. His stablemate Hakeem looks ideally distance suited and has some class. However, he did miss a recent preparation when racing was abandoned.
De Kock's other runner is Mujallad, who ran on well last time in the Spring Spree Stakes over 1200m and he should stay this trip. Bernard Fayd'Herbe is an eyecatching booking. Sean Tarry has four runners and a reserve. Unfortunately Bockscar was eliminated despite a fine preparation race, which was surprising as some of his other runners don't have great recent form.
London Secret has been disappointing since her good two-year-old career and would be a surprise winner, although she ran quite a nice preparation race. Purple Diamond is a similar sort as he won the Golden Horseshoe as a two-year-old but has not won since. Bold Viking is talented and won his last start but he has breathing issues and is also hard to fancy. Count Tassilo could be the best Tarry runner as he is ideally distance suited and was staying on in eyecatching fashion in the race over 1450m in which Bockscar was ahead of him.
Daffiq
Daffiq is an ex De Kock horse who had class but obviously problems too and he had an eyecatching preparation in the above mentioned race. He is ideally distance suited and could be in the mix for Gokhan Terzi.
Chepardo also ran on in eyecatching style for third in that race and is distance suited. Danza ran well in that race too but is on the one-paced side so will find it tough to beat such a big field.
Dan The Lad was in that race and found little extra so will have to be ridden from off the pace.
Another ideally distance suited horse is Bold Coast, who is way better than his last run.
Rings And Things' class was proven when third in the CTS Mile and she will be dangerous off a mere 85 merit rating. Tsitsikamma Dance won his Highveld debut well over 1400m and Cape horses often have suppressed merit ratings due to the class of the horses in that centre so he is an interesting contender as he was raised just one point and should have come on from the run.
Lake Kinneret is 1kg better off with the latter for a 2,7 length beating but ran a cracker next time out over 1450m and is a dark horse.
Rebuked looks held by Lake Kinneret. Soldier On has ability and comes in off a fine preparation and as one who would prefer further he will be staying on.
Full Of Attitude is a progressive type who won well last time but was raised five points.
Kings Archer
Kings Archer is a soldier who is distance suited and goes well for Strydom but it will be tough carrying 61kg. Zouaves is a classy distance suited horse and Geoff Woodruff knows how to peak them.
Sail For Joy is distance suited and in good form and he is 1kg better off with African Ruler for a 0,2 length beating. African Ruler, from the yard of last year's winning trainer Paul Peter, could be dangerous from the front as he has plenty of speed and proved he stays 1 400m last time, although the extra 75m might stretch him.
Nephrite
Nephrite looks held by Soldier On and Divine Odyssey. Huyssteen has struck as one with promise but usually disappoints. Finchatton looks to have too much weight. Mardi Gras could beat home Tsitsikamma Dance, Pietro Mascagni, Rings And Things, Count Tassilo and Zouaves, although these fancies could change if there proves to be a notable draw bias in the earlier races.