Brazil: a lesson for SA
Ruling party’s failure to deliver has seen the rise of the far-right
THE BACKSLIDE of Brazil’s Workers Party (WP), once one of the most admired left-of-centre parties in the developing world, into corruption, mismanagement and cronyism, has unleashed a backlash that lifted farright populist leader Jair Bolsonaro into the country’s presidency.
Bolsonaro’s election is a warning to the ANC about how a party elected with massive popular expectations by the impoverished masses could disappoint its supporters so much that they seek answers in populism.
The Workers Party came to power to build democracy and boost development for the previously disadvantaged. Brazil’s last survey results showed that blacks have, for the first time, outnumbered white Brazilians.
After the disappointment of the party, many Brazilians – left out of the golden growth years – are increasingly blaming democracy for the previous government’s failures, rather than the leaders or the former governing party.
Many hard-pressed Brazilians had begun to believe – wrongly, of course – that the era of military rule was “better”, in similar ways that many people are whispering that apartheid was better because crime was supposedly contained, and because blacks were not in power then – white society was more rules-based.
Workers Party leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva became Brazil’s president in 2003. The party, during its first years, brought growth, welfare programmes and strengthened democracy. However, economic crises – such as a tighter US monetary policy, a drought, rising corruption and rising debt because of construction projects associated with hosting the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympics, brought disenchantment.
Lula was supposed to be the Workers Party’s presidential candidate, but having been jailed for corruption was replaced by Fernando Haddad. Lula’s successor, Dilma Rousseff, was impeached after she was accused of manipulating the national budget.
Bolsonaro based his campaign on a populist mix of neo-liberal economics and conservative social values. He attacked abortion, feminism and gay rights. A staunch Roman Catholic, Bolsonaro allied himself with Brazil’s churches, using the slogan of “Brazil above everything, God above all”.
His campaign promised to be tough on crime. He claimed the spiralling crime in Brazil’s poor neighbours was because criminals had far too many human rights. He vowed to bring “law and order”, “responsibility” for actions and “following rules” back to Brazil, where in some places ganglords run communities, the rule of law had broken down and corruption has spiralled out of control.
Under Lula and Rousseff, Brazil became one of the emerging powers whose investments in Africa helped Africa’s longest continuous growth rally since independence from colonialism. Brazil pursued “South-South” trade, increasing its trading with African and developing countries.
Lula and Rousseff dramatically increased Brazilian trade, investment and political partnerships with Africa.
Brazil was also a partner to Africa and developing countries pushing for fairer global institutions, trade rules and global company investment behaviour, which is often skewed in favour of industrial countries.
It is very likely Brazil will now disengage with developing countries and Africa. It is also very likely that Brazil will pursue a “Brazil first” strategy.
Under Bolsonaro it is likely to pursue a bilateral foreign policy strategy, striking deals with individual countries case-by-case. This means Brazil may disengage with Africa, Latin America and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa).
Within BRICS, Brazil, with South Africa and India, pushed not only for equitable global institutions, trade rules and investment flows, but also democracy at global and country level. Brazil’s turn to right-wing populism will weaken the democratic lobby within BRICS and strengthen its more autocratic ones.
The lesson for South Africa is that state-led redistribution strategies, infrastructure and industrial policy must be pursued honestly at all times, because these strategies, although good and necessary in countries such as South Africa and Brazil with their legacies of historical injustices, are highly susceptible to capture by party elites, corrupt business and criminals.
A few years ago, Bolsonaro was virtually unknown. Now, he is the president of Brazil, having whipped up popular mass grievances against corruption, crime and failing public services, to secure election.
It is increasingly possible that a demagogue could rise to power in South Africa, appealing directly to the masses, surging popular anger against corruption, crime and poor public services, by calling for the death penalty for crime, for foreigners to be sent away and for key democratic principles to be set aside on the basis of bringing back law, rules and order.