World going to get dirtier
THE world’s three biggest consumers of coal – the dirtiest fossil fuel – are getting ready to boost usage so much that it will be almost as if the pandemic-induced drop in emissions never happened.
US power plants are going to consume 16% more coal this year than in 2020, and then another 3% in 2022, the Energy Information Administration said. China and India, which together account for almost two-thirds of demand, have no plans to cut back in the near term.
This means higher emissions, a setback for climate action ahead of international talks this year intended to raise the level of ambition from commitments under the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gases.
“We’re going to see a really marked increase in emissions,” with coal consumption at US power plants returning almost to 2019 levels, said Amanda Levin, policy analyst at the New Yorkbased National Resources Defense Council.
The US increase stems from higher natural gas prices and the recovery from the pandemic. For China and India, rising electricity demand will keep coal as the dominant source of power generation even as they add vast amounts of solar and wind capacity.
US President Joe Biden has said the country will target carbon neutrality by 2050. He is convening an April meeting that’s expected to include China and India.
President Xi Jinping promised the world last year that China would achieve net-zero emissions by 2060. India has yet to make any similar commitment.
In China’s latest five-year plan announced on March 5, Premier Li Keqiang didn’t set a hard target for emissions reduction. He said coal would remain a key component of the electricity strategy. More detailed energy plans to be published later this year could include specific steps on curbing fossil fuel consumption.
While Beijing has reduced coal’s share in the nation’s energy mix in recent years, total power consumption has risen, so its usage has also climbed. China also has the world’s biggest number of coal-fired power plants and more than half are less than 10 years old. Because they can run for several more decades, it’ll be tough to shift to alternatives.
Although a recovery in energy-intensive sectors like construction and metal production is boosting shortterm coal demand, consumption will fall in the years ahead as China acts on climate promises, said Tang Daqian, an associate director at Fitch Bohua.
India too is a long way from a clean grid, even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi said this month he’s ahead of schedule for meeting the initial carbon-reduction pledges under the Paris Agreement, reducing emissions intensity 33% to 35% from 2005 levels by 2030.
While the country has implemented an ambitious rollout of solar power, coal continues to account for around 70% of its electricity generation.
In the US coal is rebounding after the coronavirus pandemic curtailed electricity usage and cut demand for the fuel by 19% last year. It’s also the result of gains in natural gas prices, which are up more than 40% from a year ago. When gas gets more expensive, utilities will often start burning more coal to bring down costs, even though it puts out twice the emissions. The EIA expects gas prices to remain high into 2022, pointing to strong demand for coal next year.
Coal India, the world’s largest producer, expects consumption will be boosted as industries including steel, cement and aluminum return to pre-virus levels of output.
Michael Bloomberg, the founder of Bloomberg LP, has committed
$500 million (about R7.4 billion) to launch Beyond Carbon, a campaign aimed at closing coal-powered plants in the US by 2030.