Challengers, the end-game... and the poor

THE year is barely a month old, Parliament has not officially opened, yet the battles lines for 2012 have already been drawn.

Doubtless, this will be the year of even more ANC in-fighting and factionalism – although the ANC will deny any signs of division in its centenary year. It will also be a year in which two conferences will dominate – the ANC’S Policy Conference in June followed by its elective conference in December in Mangaung.

For Jacob Zuma both will be crucial if he is to win another term as president of the ANC and by extension, president of SA.

For those on the outside of the often opaque decision-making processes of the ruling party, 2012 may well be a little confusing. It’s pretty certain that virtually everything Zuma does will have the endgame of Mangaung in mind. So, visits to the Eastern Cape and Kwazulu-natal, his traditional strongholds will no doubt increase. It will also become increasingly difficult to distinguish between the business of the state and the party as Zuma does his rounds, drumming up support ahead of Mangaung.

As the incumbent Zuma has the advantage of patronage to dole out to his supporters. But if Zuma is the incumbent, the natural question is “Who are the challengers?” As always, it is difficult to tell. Kgalema Motlanthe, the deputy president, appears to be the persistent bridesmaid. Whether he will stick his neck out and run against Zuma remains to be seen. If he doesn’t come forward at Mangaung one fears he may miss the boat completely.

The “opposition” to Zuma are a motley crew of dissenters and it’s completely unclear whether they would have the organisation necessary to challenge him. Zuma is, after all, a crafty campaigner. Much of the opposition to Zuma will depend on the outcome of the Julius Malema disciplinary hearing. It is for this reason that ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe has been doing the rounds, ensuring grassroots support. Should the Malema decision be confirmed by the appeals process, it will surely take the wind out of the sails of any who would challenge Zuma?

But personality aside, what policy changes will be on the cards in June? Will the ANC bow to demands for nationalisation of mines? Will it toss out the “willing buyer, willing seller” clause in a bid to expropriate land and will the NHI policy proposals be granted greater impetus? The ANC is likely to kick for touch on the nationalisation issue. It realises that the state cannot afford to nationalise the mines – first and foremost. Nor does it have the capacity to do so.

In all likelihood, it will seek to extract some concessions from mining houses with regard to a state stake in the mining sector. Quite how this might work remains to be seen, but is likely to take the heat off the issue in the meantime.

Constitutionally it would be almost impossible for the ANC to ditch the “willing buyer, willing seller” clause, yet land reform is critical. At this stage probably more critical than the calls for nationalisation. Many times however the demand for land is used interchangeably with the demand for housing. That the housing demand is rising should be cause for concern and further urgent intervention to prevent further protests and unrest.

Given the Treasury’s reluctance to totally back the NHI, as well as the health minister’s caution surrounding the speed with which hospitals can be rehabilitated, it is unlikely that anything more than the pilot phase will be endorsed by the Policy Conference.

While predictions are always dangerous, one almost sees Zuma ensconced for another term – and with that more policy and general governmental drift – hardly a cheerful thought. But despite the internal party battles, the government has a duty to listen to its citizens. The national government’s intervention in Limpopo is long overdue. Maladministration and corruption have long been documented there as well as the Eastern Cape and North West. Whatever the accusations about the politics of the Limpopo intervention, the people deserve proper delivery of services.

It is the poor – the ANC’S core constituency – who suffer the most when the government fails. The middle class have the ability to buy their way out of many interactions with the state when necessary. The poor don’t have that luxury.

So, if the ANC wants to pay a fitting tribute to its founders, it will sort out the mess in Limpopo and the Eastern Cape in particular as a result of corruption, maladministration and a careless disregard for the most vulnerable in our society.

February is manager of Idasa’s Political Monitoring and Information Service.