Banner week for aviation industry
FROM Zhuhai in southern China to Florida, hawkers of civil and military aircraft – and the money to finance them – will try to drum up new business at aerospace expos this week, conscious their high-risk industry is approaching a turning point.
After US weapons makers beat profit forecasts, analysts say tensions in eastern Europe and Asia are reversing a post Cold War slump in defence spending that until recently weighed on arms firms.
At the same time, commercial aviation is faltering after a decade-long winning streak.
“Civil is weakening and turning very spotty in places, whereas defence is growing in US and world markets,” said Teal Group consultant Richard Aboulafia. “It’s a combination of a re-armament cycle coupled with something of a ramp-up based on regional tensions and fears.”
China’s biggest aviation event – Airshow China, starting in Zhuhai today – underlines the trend in what is a banner week for the industry. A defence trade show takes place in Jakarta and an air finance conference in Hong Kong, as well as the annual US business jet jamboree in Orlando, Florida.
Topping Airshow China’s agenda is the last-minute public debut of the J-20 stealth fighter – a warplane China hopes will narrow a military gap with the US. Ability to project air power is key for China as it flexes muscles on territorial disputes in the East China and South China seas.
It’s the second successive edition of the biennial Zhuhai show at which China has pulled the covers off a classified stealth jet, after displaying the export-orientated Shenyang J-31 in 2014.
Western analysts say the J-20 moves up a gear in terms of China’s ability to punch beyond its territory, though it may lack the clout of its lookalike, the US F-22 Raptor. The Xian Y-20 strategic cargo carrier, similar to the US C-17 aircraft, will also be present.
Another hot topic at Zhuhai will be the outlook for the much-delayed maiden flight of state-owned Comac’s 150-seat C919 jetliner – Beijing’s effort to challenge the civil aerospace domination of Airbus Group and Boeing. The C919 is currently scheduled to take flight this year, but industry sources say this will slip to 2017.
“When it was launched the C919 was supposed to fly in 2014. Now it is 2016 and it hasn’t flown, because developing a commercial jet has been much harder than they expected,” said China aerospace expert Bradley Perrett of Aviation Week.