The Trump ‘affect’
THE most significant post-truth in the Trumpian US is that that which offends people only moderately sways voters, but that which affects them does so massively.
We’re witnessing the same response in South Africa. President Zuma has serially offended South Africans without serious consequences for himself or the ANC, but now that his failures in governance are heavily affecting people, a tectonic shift in voting is a strong likelihood.
The most affected people in South Africa are those who are jobless, poor and forgotten. Young people are also deeply affected because of a continuing lack of job prospects – their degrees and diplomas notwithstanding.
Half of South Africa’s youth are increasingly alarmed at the disappearance and continuous unavailability of jobs.
Still others are affected in their daily existence by the government’s failure to achieve transformation and adequately manage service delivery.
Many businesses, too, are affected and soon taxpayers will begin to bear the brunt of irregular, fruitless and futile expenditure. Overburdened taxpayers will seek revenge.
The billions that are annually drained from the fiscus through government indulgence of corrupt cadres have left our national finances in a parlous state.
With businesses carrying over losses and the business share in tax generation therefore declining, it’s the ordinary taxpayer who will now be affected and angered with the heavier tax burden they will have to carry.
As in the US and elsewhere, the disaffected voters will not look to political elites, but to those outside of politics who can grow the economy, keep the borders secure and impenetrable, and prevent the criminal justice system from continuing to be a pawn in the hands of manipulative politicians.
It’s not what President Zuma has been doing or saying that is going to impact on voter decisions, it’s how he has affected the livelihoods, economic prospects, daily well-being and security of ordinary people that will determine the outcome of the elections in 2019.
The offence he has given will be swamped by the disaffection he will have caused ordinary people.