Regional, proxy forces to decide Syria’s fate
As IS loses territory, Israel is concerned at its inability to play leading role like Russia, Turkey and Iran
AS ISLAMIC State (IS) loses an increasing amount of territory in southern Syria, the country’s civil war appears to be reaching a military conclusion after six bloody years. But the future of the country will be largely influenced by regional and international proxy players.
In the past two weeks, Syrian rebels have seized large areas from IS in southern Syria as the jihadist group prepares to defend its Raqqa stronghold in the north from a US-backed assault, rebel commanders say.
Advances by Western-backed Free Syrian Army factions have helped to reduce the risk of IS fighters regrouping in areas near Damascus and the Jordanian border as they face major defeats in Syria and Iraq.
The sudden gains are a culmination of months of covert operations in which they have ambushed and cut communications lines to weaken the militants’ stronghold in the south-eastern border area close to Iraq, the rebels say.
As the conflict appears to be tailing off, analysts are increasingly considering where the country actually stand diplomatically and militarily and which countries will influence the eventual outcome and why.
“Israel, which has largely been distanced from the Syrian quagmire, senses its lack of influence over arrangements currently under way in Moscow, Tehran, Ankara, Astana, and Geneva,” said Israeli analysts Zvi Magen and Udi Dekel in an analysis piece written for Israel’s National Institute for Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
However, it appears the Jewish state will be taking a more active role as the balance of power changes to its detriment.
The question now is to what extent Israel can remain determined to maintain its red lines and prevent the build-up of Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies in Syria and the deployment of these forces near the border in the Golan Heights, without destabilising its special relations with Moscow and without causing a wider escalation in the northern arena, Magen and Dekel explained.
The war, which began as a civilian uprising, evolved into a war among jihadist organisations and then into a war among entities vying for regional dominance, bolstered by respective regional and international powers.
The turning point in the war began in September 2015, when Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to intervene militarily in Syria to save Bashar al-Assad’s regime. “The battlefield successes by the pro-Assad coalition, headed by Russia… peaked with the fall of the northern city of Aleppo in December 2016,” the two analysts stated.
“Since Donald Trump took office, the United States has worked hard to defeat (IS). The US Central Command is promoting an attack to liberate Raqqa…” explained Magen and Dekel.
US forces operating in Syria’s north-east have been beefed up with hundreds of marines, joining some 500 special forces personnel already operating on the ground.
“The Syrian Democratic Forces are closing in on Raqqa. The SDF was established with US support and consists of fighters from YPG, the Kurdish militia, as well as Sunni Arab fighters – the key US allies in the ground offensive against the Islamic State in Syria, the analysts explained. At the same time, forces of the Syrian military subordinate to Assad are bearing down on Raqqa from the west.”
On the diplomatic level since its military intervention, Russia has become the senior actor in the Syrian arena.
Trump’s entrance into the White House has created expectations for co-operation between Russia and the US, but signs of a change in US Middle East policy are emerging; such a change would be motivated by a desire to hold back Iranian influence and rebuild relations with the Sunni Arab states.
“Therefore, despite its achievements in Syria and in its improved status in the region, it seems that Moscow will above all want to reach understandings with Washington and increase co-ordination with it to preserve the Alawite regime in Syria,” stated Magen and Dekel.
After seizing control of territories in northern Syria, Turkey, which supports rebel groups identified with the Muslim Brotherhood and the Free Syrian Army, is very worried about growing Kurdish influence and keen to get involved in military efforts to control Raqqa.
“For its part, Iran still wants to see an undivided Syria under Alawite rule and dislikes Russia’s policy of recognising the country’s internal balance of power,” explained the Israeli analysts.
Iran is also displeased by the central role Russia has given Turkey in representing the Sunni rebels in the talks, and by the recognition of Turkey’s zone of influence in northern Syria. Additional reporting by Reuters