Why Chelsea will still beat Spurs to the title

LONDON: Chelsea’s lead at the top of the Premier League may have been cut from 13 points to four, but they still remain heavy favourites for the title even though they must negotiate six more league games this season.

The 2-0 defeat by Manchester United came 15 days after a surprise 2-1 loss to Crystal Palace, and with Tottenham mounting a seven-match winning streak in the league, the title race suddenly appears to be wide open once again.

But any hope of Spurs beating Chelsea to the title may be slightly premature when the two have their season run-ins compared, and with the Blues needing five victories to guarantee the league title, the effort from north London may be too little, too late.

That’s because Chelsea face a much easier run-in than Spurs, with games against Middlesbrough, West Bromwich Albion, Watford and Sunderland in May looking like a dream scenario for how Conte would want to end the campaign.

In contrast, Spurs’ schedule is littered with potential stumbling blocks as Crystal Palace, Arsenal, Manchester United and Leicester City all feature, with their remaining two matches coming against West Ham and Hull City.

Chelsea will expect to beat Southampton at home next week, with Spurs facing a testing trip to Selhurst Park before the north London derby the following weekend on the same day that Chelsea travel to Goodison Park.

Heading into May, Spurs should see off West Ham at the London Stadium, while the following Monday sees Chelsea take on Middlesbrough at home, a side who could be heading for the Championship by that time.

One of Chelsea’s harder encounter sees them travel to the Hawthorns to face West Brom, though they do so two days before Spurs play Manchester United that, on paper, looks to be Mauricio Pochettino’s side’s hardest match left in 2016-17. And while Spurs wrap up the season against Leicester and a Hull side who may well be fighting for survival come the last day of the season, Chelsea play Watford and Sunderland.

Should Chelsea beat Southampton, Middlesbrough, Watford and Sunderland, along with one of Everton or West Brom, then there will be nothing that Spurs can do to prevent the Blues from winning the title. They need Chelsea to draw two of their remaining games and win all six of their own in order to finish level on points and likely secure the title courtesy of their superior goal difference, while two defeats would open the door for Spurs to beat Chelsea on points alone.

The one influential factor that could play a big part though comes not in the league, but the FA Cup. Chelsea meet Tottenham this weekend in the semi-finals at Wembley, and if they can inflict a heavy defeat on Chelsea they can leave their rivals on the floor in terms of momentum and morale. Such a blow could then have a major impact on their remaining games, and open the door for Spurs to capitalise and claim a first league title in 56 years. – The Independent