The China puzzle

THERE is a basic tension in the Trump administration: whether to challenge China (and if so, where and when) or work with it. There is, on the one hand, huge resentment toward Beijing among those who believe that China has grown its economy at the expense of the working and middle classes.

And then there are those who believe that without China’s help there can be no serious deterrent to North Korea, no lasting stability in the South China Sea and the Asian rim as a whole.

This much is true: For the foreseeable future, no relationship is more crucial than that between these two nations. Together, they have a combined population of more than 1.7 billion people. Their economies dwarf all others, they both have nuclear weapons, they both have veto power in the UN Security Council. Their appetites and ambitions shape the globe: Together they can make for a more peaceful world; as adversaries, they can make a mess of things.

To some extent, President Trump seems to understand all that. He engaged early with President Xi Jinping and has sought to regularly consult the Chinese leader, including a recent exchange that the president described as a “very strong phone call.” Yet, at the same time, he has failed to articulate a coherent strategy toward China or to achieve significant progress on the many consequential issues. He seems also to lump all China-related issues into one big, menacing ball, trade, tariffs, North Korea, rather than dealing with them separately, and this has added more complications.

There is a template for co-operation, and while it involves an issue in which Trump has no interest, it provides a glimpse of a way forward. The issue is climate change. A combination of arduous negotiation by Secretary of State John Kerry and the Obama White House, plus China’s own horrible air pollution problems, brought Beijing around to signing the Paris accord and making a major commitment to stabilise greenhouse gas emissions. Self-interest and patient diplomacy: a combination that could work to the benefit of the entire world.