Hard task for Wellspring
THE two headliners for the nine race meeting on the Turffontein Inside track tomorrow are both Novice Handicaps where there is the hard task of separating classy young three-year-olds with high merit ratings from toughened lowly merit rated older horses.
In the first of these events over 1 200m Wellspring took eleven runs to win his Maiden Plate, but he faced some good sorts like So Var and Snow Boarding and finished close to them.
He is the selection as he has been accorded a reasonable merit rating after his maiden win and this is a suitable course and distance.
He has a fair draw and has had a couple of runs this season so should be race fit.
Flying Free proved his class in the Grade 2 Golden Horseshoe over 1 400m.
He was bumped at the top of the straight in that race which caused him to lose his good position but he then lived up to his name by running on strongly for a 1,35 length fourth.
However, he has not raced since and has been accorded a merit rating of 96, meaning he has to carry 62,5kg and give Wellspring 9,5kg.
He has won easily over course and distance before and is drawn in pole, so his class could still pull him through, but history does show that young three-year-olds with merit ratings this high do battle in early season handicaps against older horses, no matter how good they are destined to become.
Cedrus Libani
Cedrus Libani is an older horse who has won well over the course and distance before and he makes most appeal of the rest although he will have to bounce back to best after a disappointing run over course and distance last time, where the jockey did not persevere.
In the second of the Novice Handicaps over 1600m the three-year-olds are sided with.
The Sean Tarry-trained Yamoto made a sparkling debut when showing pace under the hands over 1 160m and then kicking clear when challenged.
This Dynasty colt looks full of class and from running style and pedigree he will relish the step up to 1 600m. He is drawn two and Anthony Delpech is aboard. His stablemate Aurora Australis also won impressively on debut, over 1 400m, but has not raced since that race in March and has a tricky draw here.
The older horse who makes most appeal is Boiling Point as he has plenty of ability, but appears to have a few problems. From a plum draw over a suitable trip he could surprise running fresh.
The best bet could be Diva Faustina in race three over 1 450m.
She is an effective front-running to handy sort and from a good draw can get it right if ridden more conservatively than she was the last time she attempted this sort of trip.
On that occasion she opened up a big lead and tired late, whereas she stayed on well in her only subsequent event when held up off the pace over 1 600m. The value bet is awarded to Noceur in the last race. She represents the very much in form Alec Laird yard and won easily when stepped up to 2 000m first time out the maidens.
She has always struck as a solid horse with ability and as one who would improve as she got older, so she can follow up despite being accorded a maximum eight point raise.
In the first race over 1 200m the first-timer Silver Maple will be of much interest as he is a full-brother to the dual Guineas winner Janoobi and jumps from pole position.
If he has the same amount of pace and resolve as his courageous brother he will be hard to beat, although Over Easy and Combat Muster could give some cheek.
Captain Chips
Another Alec Laird-trained horse who could win is Captain Chips in the seventh.
He runs over an ideal 1 450m course and distance and is well drawn, so as one who has become ultra consistent he could prove hard to peg back. Edisson, unlucky last time over 1 800m, could appreciate the step back to his winning distance and looks the main danger along with Walker, who has plenty of ability and returns from a layoff with Delpech up from a good draw over an ideal trip. CT_RAC_E1_220917_P01