Tensions build as Iraqi Kurds vote for independence
ERBIL: Fireworks have been exploding in this city as Iraqi Kurds drive down thoroughfares honking their horns and flying Kurdish flags since they began voting on an independence referendum from Iraq that is setting off political fireworks in the region.
Initial results of Monday’s vote indicated 72 percent of eligible voters had taken part and an overwhelming majority, possibly over 90 percent, had said “yes”, Erbil-based Rudaw TV said. Final results are expected today.
However, the vote will not immediately change the legal status of the Iraqi Kurdish region from the semi-autonomy it has enjoyed since 1991.
But the possible overreaction of Baghdad and its neighbours to the vote has injected fear and uncertainty about what happens next.
Long-time Iraqi Kurdish leader Marzoud Barzani has made clear a vote for sovereignty doesn’t mean an automatic declaration of independence. Instead Barzani said he’ll use the referendum results as leverage in negotiations with the central government in Baghdad for a peaceful transition to Kurdish statehood.
Nevertheless, Baghdad, Ankara and Tehran, all with restive Kurdish populations, issued threats if the vote went ahead. Iran closed its airspace to the landlocked Iraqi Kurdish region, and Turkey and Baghdad may follow suit.
Turkey threatened to close the border with Iraqi Kurdistan, through which the Kurds sell 550 000 barrels of oil a day, illegally according to Baghdad, and depend on more than a billion dollars a year in food and other imports. The Iraqi Supreme Court has declared the referendum unconstitutional. Earlier this month Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi warned he would send tanks to Erbil, a threat he later withdrew.
The Turkish parliament renewed a mandate for Turkish troops, which have been deployed on the border, to enter Iraq.
Military intervention would be an extraordinary step, however. The US, a close ally of the Iraqi Kurds, has strongly opposed the referendum, and said it would withdraw support for Erbil-Baghdad talks, but has signalled no support for a military response.
Violence is most possible in the city of Kirkuk, disputed between Kurds and Arabs, with a large Turkmen population. Shia militias have threatened to attack Kirkuk if the Kurds leave the Iraqi union.
But the Kurdish decision is beyond the realm of pragmatism. It may seem a flight of dangerous romanticism to outsiders. But to the long-suffering Kurds, who have been mistreated by their neighbour for decades, if not centuries, there appears to be no choice. “We are ready to pay any price for our independence,” Barzani said.