Regional powers must prevent Zim implosion

JOHANNESBURG: “It is imperative that South Africa, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union take immediate action to prevent Zimbabwe imploding,” said Aditi Lalbahadur, the South African Institute of International Affairs’ foreign policy programme manager.

“Zimbabwe is a very important neighbour to South Africa historically, politically and economically, so it is understandable that the government is keeping a close eye on developments to the north,” Lalbahadur said during an interview yesterday.

South Africa, as the chair of SADC, will probably call an urgent extraordinary meeting in the near future to discuss developments and to decide what action to take, she said.

The foreign policy expert was referring to the Zimbabwe military’s take-over of the country in what some have labelled a coup.

The takeover followed Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe’s sacking of former vice-president Emmerson Mnangagwa last week in what was interpreted as an attempt to purge the ruling Zanu-PF party of members deemed to be political opponents of Mugabe’s wife Grace.

The latter has harboured ambitions for a long time to take over the vice-presidency, according to analysts.

“What is really critical is the impact of the time frame in regards to how this whole situation unfolds,” said Lalbahadur.

The immediate concern is that the situation doesn’t escalate into all-out violence.

“The short-to-medium term will result in a change of government, not necessarily of political parties, but within Zanu-PF, as it is clear that Grace Mugabe’s G40 faction are no longer in charge,” said Lalbahadur.

How peacefully this shortterm scenario plays out depends to some extent on the response of the Zanu-PF youth league, which supports the G40 faction.

The league has dared the military to take further action – as threatened by the commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Force, Constantino Chiwenga, who is behind the military take-over – should the political purges continue.

“The longer-term implication is how the new government faction will engage with the region, with South Africa and with the rest of the world, but most importantly with Zimbabweans,” Lalbahadur said.

Just how the SADC will deal with the issue also remains to be seen, as the region is not accustomed to military coups, with the exception of Lesotho.

“South Africa isn’t interested in having to send troops to Zimbabwe, and in general Pretoria, backed by Mozambique and Botswana, has tended to be more conciliatory in settling regional disputes,” said the foreign policy expert.

In contrast, Angola and Namibia have tended to be more militaristic.

According to Lalbahadur, the situation is “very fluid”, and how it eventually plays out will be seen over the next few days and weeks.