‘Impasse’ in Zim talks
NEGOTIATIONS in Zimbabwe have reached a crucial point between the two political factions in the ruling Zanu-PF party – the one controlled by the military at present and those who support President Robert Mugabe and his wife Grace in the G40 faction.
Mugabe made it clear yesterday that he was not going anywhere. He wants to serve out his term, which ends next year, and stand for re-election and a further five-year term which would end either with his death or when he is 99 years old.
An insider confirmed that the negotiations with Mugabe have reached an “impasse”. In other words, there is no clear road ahead for Mugabe to retire and make way for fresh elections for a new president, which must happen within 90 days of his death or resignation. And this is more or less what the military seems to want since its leader, former vice-president Emmerson Mnangagwa, was sacked nearly two weeks ago.
But the military is also not looking quite as confident as it was two days ago. It became increasingly clear yesterday that its presence, mostly junior members of the Zimbabwe National Army, posted around key buildings in central Harare, has weakened – not helped by substantial rain – and that for the most part the citizenry of the city was going about its normal business.
Mugabe’s cavalcade was heard leaving his mansion in Harare, and there were rumours, likely to be true, that his favourite priest, retired Jesuit Father Fidelis Mukonori, had been brought in as a negotiator with the military. President Jacob Zuma’s two envoys are also playing a role, not only for Pretoria but for the Southern African Development Community.
Mukonori has been Mugabe’s priest since the 1970s, and played a role in the liberation struggle. He is not seen by any political party as neutral.
“He is highly partisan. He is Mugabe’s priest, and the military knows that. So while most know and respect him, he is part of the faction which supports Mugabe remaining in power and fighting fresh elections next year when he will be 94,” said an analyst who happens to be close to the Catholic Church in Harare, who did not want to be named.
In addition to negotiations, the military, advised by lawyers close to Mnangagwa, are reminding both sides in the argument that there is a constitution which took years to conclude during the inclusive government of Zanu-PF and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). The charter, lawyers say, has many shortcomings, but it was overwhelmingly supported by voters in a referendum ahead of the 2013 elections. That constitution says that if the president retires before his term ends, or dies in office, the vice-president at the time would act for 90 days and then there would be fresh presidential elections. So no one is prepared to say, at this stage, what would happen if Mugabe quit this week. Would the military support the demands of the constitution for fresh presidential elections in three months?
And if they did, would Mnangagwa win? Would he have support of the opposition, MDC? No one is sure at this stage. The MDC leaders are talking among themselves about the constitution and trying to see whether there is another way of Mugabe leaving office without generating fresh elections within the next three months.
MDC president Morgan Tsvangirai, looking much better than he has for several months, addressed a packed press conference at his huge home in northern Harare late yesterday. He made it clear neither faction of Zanu-PF had approached him about any matter in connection with the military takeover of Harare three days ago. He has not been asked if he would be prepared to join any future administration.
But he said the MDC and its allies in the alliance against Zanu-PF – which is still attracting new participants – wanted Mugabe to quit.
“In the interest of the people, Mr Robert Mugabe must resign and step down immediately… there should be a negotiated all-inclusive transitional mechanism, and there must be a mechanism for free and fair elections.”
There were many rumours yesterday that a transitional authority was about to be declared, which would include all the country’s main political leaders, excluding Mugabe, but insiders insist that point has not been reached.
Several Harare lawyers say the constitution, one way or another, will still have to be accommodated. The murky waters in Harare are getting ever more cloudy.
PRETORIA: The deepening impasse in Zimbabwe has flickered a sentiment of optimism among millions of Zimbabweans, with many starting to contemplate life beyond the seemingly endless 37-year rule of Robert Mugabe.
The optimism, however, is laced with cautiousness and uncertainty owing to the intervention of the dreaded Zimbabwe National Army. Nevertheless, one Zimbabwean street vendor in Pretoria summed it up: “We don’t care who takes over, as long as Mugabe goes.”
Mxolisi Ncube, a Zimbabwean journalist based in Johannesburg, said that with the prevailing stand-off in Harare, chances are the next leader would have to contend with and “appease” the military.
“The worst scenario would be a fully entrenched military system in which the next leader we get would be held at ransom. We have seen cases in Africa that once a country experiences a coup, there is bound to be a repeat, for example, in Nigeria,” said Ncube.
The Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF) seized control of the country in what it said was an act against “criminals” surrounding President Mugabe, who triggered the crisis when he fired vice-president Emmerson Mnangagwa last week.
Leader of Zimbabwe’s fledgling Ideal Zimbabwe political party, Tinashe Jonas, believes the “soft coup” launched by the defence forces under General Constantino Chiwenga is far from the solution, and is inspired by Mnangagwa’s uninhibited attempt to occupy higher office.
The Zimbabwe Communist Party’s general secretary Ngqabutho Nicholas Mabhena said:
“In a constitutional democracy, transfer of power should be exercised through peaceful, constitutional means and conditions must be provided. It must be possible for the people to express their views without fear of violence and intimidation. For the past 37 years, this has never been the case in Zimbabwe.
“Military action in normal circumstances cannot be condoned, but the concentration of power into fewer hands, and the closing of all normal avenues of popular control or dissent has led to military action which has been welcomed by the majority of Zimbabweans.”