N Korea’s rocket claim more credible
‘Entire US is within our range’
EXPERTS may debate trajectories, payload weights and re-entry shields, but North Korea’s claim that the entire US is within range of its rapidly improving missiles just got a lot more credible.
Yesterday’s launch of what the North called the Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile demonstrated a greater range than other missiles it’s tested. It also showcased several capabilities the North must master if it were ever to actually try to unleash them at the US.
According to North Korea’s announcements about the launch, the Hwasong-15 can be tipped with a “super-large heavy warhead” and is capable of striking anywhere in the US mainland.
The North claims it reached an altitude of 4 475km and flew 950km from its launch site just outside of Pyongyang. It was airborne for 53 minutes before splashing down in the Sea of Japan.
Pyongyang claims the missile has significant tactical and technical improvements from the Hwasong-14 ICBM it tested in July and is the North’s “most powerful” to date. KCNA also said Kim Jong Un “declared with pride that now we have finally realised the great historic cause of completing the state nuclear force.”
The repeated claim in the announcement that North Korea has now completed its “rocket weaponry system development” is new and important. It could be bluster, but might also suggest a shift away from tests – at least of these kinds of missiles – towards production and deployment.
The timing and location are important. It was launched in the dead of night, most likely from a mobile launcher, near the capital. This indicates the North was trying to show it can launch whenever and wherever it pleases – a capability that makes it more difficult to take pre-emptive action. It’s impossible to blow up a North Korean missile on the launch pad if the missile can be moved and there isn’t any launch pad at all.
Interestingly, however, Japanese media reported on Tuesday their government had intercepted radio signals from the North suggesting a launch was imminent. It’s not clear if that was a first, since details on such intelligence are normally not made public. But it does suggest the North’s neighbours are having some success with surveillance efforts.
The trajectory of the launch is also significant. The missile was “lofted” at an extremely sharp angle and reached an altitude more than twice as high as satellites in low Earth orbit.
North Korea needs to launch toward the Pacific because it would otherwise be shooting its missiles at Russia or China – a very unwise proposition.
And lofting avoids flying over Japan, which could prompt Tokyo or Japan-based US missile-defence facilities to attempt an intercept, and hits open seas instead of other nations.
But lofting doesn’t closely simulate conditions of a real launch. Experts can roughly gauge the range of the missile from its lofted performance, but a missile on an attack trajectory would fly a lower, flatter pattern that presents some different challenges, particularly in the crucial re-entry stage of the nuclear payload.
North Korea claimed, as it always does, that the test is part of its overall strategy to defend itself against Washington’s “nuclear blackmail” and that its development of missiles and nuclear weapons does not pose a threat to any country “as long as the interests of the DPRK are not infringed upon”. DPRK is short for North Korea’s official name.
In an equally familiar manner, the move was immediately condemned in the strongest terms by Tokyo and Seoul. President Donald Trump said Washington “will handle it”, while giving no indication of how or what handling it actually would mean. But the problem isn’t going away.
The launch broke a two-month lull in what has been a record pace of tests for the North. While some claimed that was the result of pressure from the US and its allies, it’s common for the North to re-focus its energies to farming activities during the harvest season.