Firearm homicide rate in Cape Town shows 21% annual increase

RESEARCHERS from UCT, Stellenbosch University, the South African Medical Research Council and University of Washington have recorded a 21% annual increase in firearm homicide in Cape Town.

This was after police fasttracked new firearm licence applications in 2010, with the coloured population experiencing a significantly greater spike in deaths than other groups, following additional exposure to illegal firearms.

They estimated that 181 excess deaths in the coloured population from 2007 to 2010, and 821 excess deaths from 2011 to 2013, were attributable to the increased supply of firearms through illicit channels.

The researchers had investigated whether changes in firearm availability in South Africa were associated with changes in firearm homicide rates.

In South Africa, the Firearms Control Act (FCA) of 2000 sought to address firearm violence by removing illegally owned firearms from circulation, stricter regulation of legally owned firearms, and stricter licensing requirements.

“Over the last few years, varied implementation of the act and police corruption have increased firearm availability,” the researchers noted.

Using post-mortem data, they analysed 36 207 homicide cases.

They found that non-firearm homicide rates either decreased or remained stable over the study period between 1994 and 2013.

Firearm homicide increased at 13% annually from 1994 through 2000, and decreased by 15% from 2003 through 2006, corresponding with changes in firearm availability in 2001, 2003, 2007 and 2011.

“Police conducted an audit of state-owned firearms in 2003, and undertook special operations to recover unlicensed weapons, the most important of which was conducted in 2003. This corresponded with a decrease in the number of lost and stolen firearms and a simultaneous increase in confiscations.

“The stricter firearm control regimen was strengthened further with the publication of the regulations pertaining to the FCA in March 2004,” they said.

But the decreasing overall homicide rates observed in police data were reversed after 2011, most notably in the Western Cape.

“This coincided with an increase in gunshot fatalities recorded in national death notifications between 2010 and 2013, and a ‘remarkable increase in the number of new firearm licences, renewals and competency certifications (being) processed’.

“By August 2011, police claimed to have cleared their licensing backlog by finalising more than 1 million firearm applications, licence renewals and competency certificates.

“In Cape Town, there was also an increase in the circulation of illegal firearms from 2007 after they were diverted from police custody by corrupt officials, particularly to gangs in coloured communities.

“After 2010 the rate of increase in firearm homicide for coloureds was significantly higher than for other race groups,” researchers said.

The researchers estimated that between 2011 and 2013, 56 excess deaths of black people and one white person were attributable to increased access to firearms as a result of less stringent application of FCA licensing provisions after 2010.

It is also possible that some of the excess mortalities among black and white people after 2010 could be attributable to the circulation of these illegal weapons, the researchers said.

“It remains possible that there are other factors associated with the differential increase in firearm homicide (relative to non-firearm homicide) in Cape Town after 2010, but which we have not been able to account for.

“One possibility is an increase in gang activity during this period. However, increased gang activity would not explain the disproportionate increase in firearm homicides. Rather, the evidence of guns being placed with gangs suggests that the gang conflicts arose from the increased supply,” they found.

Researchers concluded that the strong association between firearm availability and homicide, and the reversal of a decreasing firearm homicide trend during a period of lax enforcement, provide further support for the association between reduced firearm homicide and stricter regulation.

The gang conflicts arose from the increased supply of guns