Emerging stocks show some timid recovery
EMERGING stocks rose off twomonth lows yesterday after the US voiced willingness to negotiate a resolution to a worsening trade dispute with China, while the Turkish lira touched a record low. Beijing’s swift response on Wednesday to proposed US tariffs on $50 billion (R593.1bn) of Chinese goods raised the prospect of a spiralling row between the world’s two biggest economies.
But US indications that it was open to talks eased investor fears about tit-for-tat measures crimping global growth, and helped MSCI’s benchmark emerging equities index rally 0.7 percent.
“(There’s a) growing view that there is scope for this potential trade war to be defused, because there is a 30-day consultation period in which tariffs might get watered down,” said William Jackson, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.
Many suspect Washington will probably back down on some fronts after Beijing threatened tariffs on US soy beans – its top agricultural export to China.
Both mainland China and Hong Kong markets were closed for a public holiday, but other beaten-down Asian bourses rallied. South Korea rose 1.2 percent and Indian stocks 1.5 percent. Emerging Europe also opened stronger with Hungary and Poland bouncing 1.7 percent and 1.9 percent respectively.
And above-forecast US private sector job readings for March underpinned the recovery in risk appetite.
Currencies were more mixed with the Turkish lira once again among the worst performing currencies, falling more than 1 percent to a new record low.
The sell-off in the lira came after a report that President Tayyip Erdogan had once again criticised a recent interest rate hike, despite persistent doubledigit inflation.
“It’s well known there’s a problem of very high inflation and the central bank hasn’t met its inflation targets for six or seven years,” said Jackson. “If the currency comes under pressure there is a lingering concern that the central bank won’t be able to react because of government pressure.”
Local benchmark government 10-year bond yields rose to 12.75 percent, while Turkish stocks rose 0.7 percent, with the banks index up almost 3 percent after Halkbank surged 17 percent. US prosecutors have asked a federal judge to sentence a former Halkbank executive convicted of helping Iran evade US sanctions to about 20 years in prison – a case that has strained relations between the US and Turkey. With the dollar index firming slightly, both Russia’s rouble and South Africa’s rand slipped around 0.3 percent.
While data showed that South African private sector activity expanded at a slower pace in March, stocks bounced 1.7 percent after the signing of long-delayed renewable energy contracts worth R55bn in the first major investment deal under President Ramaphosa.
Overnight, Brazil’s Supreme Court ruled former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva could be jailed for a corruption conviction, deepening divisions in the country. The Brazilian real was little changed.