From taxi industry to Donald Trump, belligerance will bring no good
MY COLUMN was nearly ready for submission on Monday night, and then I saw a few news items on television. That shocking, disgraceful and very saddening attack on a taxi that left 11 dead in KwaZulu-Natal was clear evidence of the extreme violence that daily haunts our beautiful land.
Successive presidential terms have let the taxi industry become a law unto itself, with little care for road niceties and even less regard for the value of human life.
The latest tragedy reveals the level to which the government has allowed the country to descend into the realms of lawlessness.
But then I saw a brief account on CNN of a looming disaster that could impact our taxi industry – and indeed, every earthling. In the wake of his announcement of trade restrictions on China and other countries that will certainly affect shipping, President Trump had fired off yet another volley of tweets.
He targeted the Iranian regime and fired off threats, a response, I understand, to equally belligerent Iranian tweets. The secretary of state had also let loose a broadside at Iran.
What are these folks thinking? The Iranian government does not need much nudging to venture into precipice politics that may not exclude disrupting safe passage for ships transiting the Straits of Hormuz, the gateway for the movement of about 30% of the world’s oil.
At the insistence of the US, many countries may begin boycotting Iranian oil, to which the response, according to a foreign report, could be construed by Iran as a declaration of war.
The danger of an embargo becoming a reality that hurts the Iranian oil producers could precipitate Iran closing the straits.
It won’t take much to close the waterway that, at its narrowest point, is a mere 29 nautical miles wide.
Excluding conventional missiles, Iran’s fleet of mini-submarines, its use of “swarm tactics” by dozens of fast, small craft to attack ships, or sophisticated drones pose an enormous and effective threat to shipping – and indeed to warships tasked with keeping the straits open.
Mines laid in the straits would cause extensive ripples through the shipping world. One drone attack or the sighting of even one mine would see insurers demanding major surcharges for vessels heading to the Arabian Gulf, while unions might instruct their members to decline appointment to ships trading to the Gulf.
Although the straits were not closed during the so-called Tanker War of the 1980s, attacks on ships illustrated that maritime traffic in the Gulf can be targeted very easily and successfully.
But would Iran close the straits? After all, its own oil export programme would be jeopardised – embargo or no embargo. Similarly, as the pipelines from Iraq and Kuwait to the Mediterranean via Syria have been closed, the oil exports of all Gulf states would be curtailed, turning all into serious antagonists.
More importantly, major Asian countries such as China, India, Korea and Japan would suffer greatly if the Gulf oil tap was turned off – and they would not be happy.
Further, Iran, notes a television analyst, is already fighting proxy wars in Yemen, Syria and, via Hezbollah and Hamas, against Israel. Would Iran, he asked, “want yet another conflict to erupt”?
I also heard an analyst note that prior to Trump’s meeting with Kim Jong Un of North Korea, there was a similar broadside against the Korean leader that included the infamous “rocketman” slur, a barrage that transformed into accolades after what was seen as a ground-breaking meeting – even a world-changing event. Some wondered whether the anti-Iranian outburst was simply a ploy to get the sides to a meeting. “Is Trump,” asked the television fellow, “wanting another Nobel nomination?”
But my maritime eye passed over the world map a bit more closely. Shipping passing through the passage from Bab-el-Mandeb at the southern end of the Red Sea to the eastern end of the Gulf of Aden is also under threat from attack by Iranian-supported rebels in Yemen. Even warships have come under attack from these folks and the attacks are becoming more sophisticated and more sinister.
Chinese construction of island fortresses in the eastern part of the South China Sea has also received international condemnation.
Yet the construction continues and Chinese attempts to keep other nations’ ships and aircraft from entering the new but hotly disputed ocean territory have been tested as US, Australian, Japanese and British vessels passed close to these artificial islands.
Thus innocent passage by ships conducting their business is threatened in three major shipping routes. I
n addition, the navies of important players are being expanded to the point where some who hitherto had no aircraft carriers, now suddenly have these over-rated and vulnerable vessels.
In this global tinderbox, say the observers, it might not be a national leader who starts the fire. Rather, said one, a tiny, perhaps undetected or unexpected spark can set the conflagration going,
Yet, given the geography of the troubled areas, rising tensions in the Middle East or along some of the world’s other major trade routes will impact so many aspects of our lives, not least the local fuel price.
That could rise to three figures again.
And the taxi sector will feel it – as will we all.