Be aware of the WFA scale
BACKING newly turned three-yearolds against older horses, especially in fixed weight races, at this time of the year can be dangerous. Unless the younger horse is way better than the opposition, it’s likely to get beaten and leave many a puzzled punter who has taken the form at face value.
It is by no means a hard and fast rule but definitely one to consider when working out your bets. A possible example could come in the first at Scottsville on Sunday where some promising three-year-olds take on a few older horses with some useful recent form.
The WFA scale, the bible of handicappers, says that three-year-olds in August should be in receipt of 7kg from their older rivals in races over 1000m to 1 200m.
In South Africa three-year-olds only get 2kg relief in Maiden Plates and therein lies the rub.
Cavalry
Horses like Buckleberry and Cavalry have yet to be assigned a merit rating as they have not yet had three races so one needs to work out whether they are 5kg better than their older rivals. Buckleberry has been narrowly beaten in his two starts and with Anton Marcus aboard, Paul Lafferty’s colt is likely to start close to the top of bookmaker’s boards. Cavalry has shown up well in two barrier trials and was not disgraced against winners when making his debut in a small feature.
According to many trainers, our handicappers tend to over-rate maiden winners, dishing out unrealistically high merit ratings, and victory for either of the two mentioned could see them rated in the 80’s.
Pantsula
Pantsula and Leslies Pathtofame have both been knocking on the door and Pantsula especially is a distance specialist with consistent form. Gavin van Zyl is a dab hand in Scottsville sprints and Pantsula could prove more than a match for his younger rivals given these weights.
We have a similar scenario in the second and here it’s a case of whether you rely on the handicapper’s assessment and back Riptide or go with the older runners headed by the best performed Fleek.
Louis Goosen’s runner is lightly raced with some patchy form but has turned in some useful performances including a close-up second over 1000m on the poly last time out. Her pedigree suggests that she should prefer Sunday’s trip. She should also be helped in her quest with hot apprentice Luke Ferraris giving her 2.5kg relief from the saddle.
The year younger Riptide, who was a beaten favourite over a mile last time out, is rated 1.5kg better than Fleek and has Marcus in the irons. I’m A Var and Under The Rose must have claims and Star In The Sky, a close-up third on debut, could spoil the argument as she has an exceptional pedigree and should be at home over this trip.
Marcus has picked a lot of low hanging fruit for Sunday and could well go into the opening leg of the Pick 6 with two winners to his credit.
Prince Charming
He has another plum ride in Prince Charming for Greg and Karen Anthony in the opening leg of the Pick 6. Prince Charming has come on from every run and could have the measure of the younger White Lightning who has pulled a bum draw.
The highly rated Brighteyebushytail has had more problems than the Guptas but can get back to form in the fourth. He was not asked for much when returning from a seven-month break and although this 1600m may still be on the sharp side he could have too much class if finding his best form.