The ‘machine’ keeps purring along
THE Justin SnaithRichard Fourie team has been dubbed “a machine”, so regularly has it churned out winners recently.
And at Durbanville today the well-tuned engine looks set to keep purring along.
The trainer and jockey combo have strong chances in two races and could be dangerous in a couple more.
Despite what Mark Twain said about statistics being akin to lies and damned lies in the hands of politicians, current racing stats can’t be denied and tell a compelling story.
Snaith has a winning strike rate of nearly 19% over the six weeks of the current season – and about 23% at Durbanville racecourse. His horses place more than 40% of the time.
Fourie’s numbers are hotter: a win rate of over 33% and a place rate of 45%, with a better record at the country course. If you’d stuck a R1 win on every Fourie mount since 1 August, you’d be about R13 richer.
Following these winners, with a bit of judgment thrown in, is a profitable formula no sensible punter can ignore.
Snaith and Fourie are responsible for the best bet on today’s card, the appropriately named Rip It Up in the sixth, a MR 74 Handicap over 1250m around the left-hand turn.
This three-year-old colt started as favourite on his debut last month – indicating the stable’s regard. He could only manage third place that day, but put things right when winning three weeks later.
A step up in trip from the minimum distance will suit him, while an inside draw adds further weight to his case.
The main threat to Rip It Up comes from Vaughan Marshall-trained Jardin, who had a sparkling two-year-old campaign over the KwaZuluNatal winter season.
He won his first three races before an unhappy experience in a feature, hurting his mouth and bumping the precocious Chimichuri Run. Rip It Up and Jardin look a decent couple for Swingers and Exactas.
The card opener, a Maiden Plate for fillies and mares, could go the way of the “machine”. Here the equine moving part is Mumtaz, a three-year-old filly by Visionaire having her third start. She has been a little wide-eyed and bewildered thus far, but the expert guidance of Fourie will get her mind on the job, while tackling more ground should also be of benefit. There are several firsttimers in this race, so an eye must be kept on the betting as Trifectas and Quartets are composed. Queen Nitocris, from Candice Bass-Robinson’s stable, was a R2.2-million yearling purchase and connections will be eager to see money start coming back pronto.
An interesting Snaith-Fourie runner is Ernesto in race two, a Maiden Plate over 1250m.
This son of Captain Al hasn’t shaped in three runs so far, but steps out here having been gelded and had blinkers fitted, two tactics that can bring about dramatic improvement in horses. Also intriguing is Silver Maple in the fourth, a MR 88 Handicap and the highest-rated event on the card.
This R1-million purchase won his first two races on the Highveld as a three-year-old for Geoff Woodruff and looked headed for the top. He’s had problems since then. A move to Snaith’s yard at the coast, along with gelding, might see him get back on track.
The son of Silvano might not be ready to win after nearly a year off racing, but his performance will be closely watched. – TAB news