What 2019 holds for the oil and gas sector
Prospecting folks could launch the country on a new and profitable course
I WENT to my files to read my New Year’s column of 2018. Back then, I asked what plans were in place to replace the salvage tug (now with 43 winters astern); I suggested that the ports should do more to attract the growing armada of passing traffic to refuel and/or for maintenance, and I argued that aerial surveillance patrols should be beefed up to stop illegal activities along the coast, adding that helicopters and proper maritime patrol aircraft should be on standby for search and rescue operations.
More important and louder voices than mine are also raising these and other issues, yet nothing has happened to advance any of those or other hugely important matters that collectively have the potential to employ many people!
So what may we expect this year? Will we have a rerun of lethargy and ineptitude that, in part, has caused the prolonged empty berths at our harbours? Alternatively, will a bright new dawn break, revealing new and exciting opportunities for the maritime sector? Indeed, the year could yield some very promising activities, particularly in the oil and gas sector when seismic prospecting begins in several blocks off the coast. Now when that happens, the survey vessels will require a local base from which to operate, providing work for ancillary services and revenue for the ports themselves.
Imagine, though, the wider impact if such surveys reveal viable reserves of oil or gas! These prospecting folks should be welcomed, and officialdom should remove red-taped obstacles from their path, for their success could launch the ports, those ancillary services and indeed the country on a new and extremely profitable course.
Let’s concentrate on getting through Parliament every bit of maritime legislation that favours ship owning, shipping operations and marine mining. Let’s review urgently the structure of ownership, operation, and management of the country’s ports and, where necessary, privatise parts of dockland. After all, look what happened when Cape Town’s Waterfront got going.
The latter project was piloted by David Jack, Bill Shewell, their teams and their successors from whose vision and hard work Africa’s most-visited tourist destination has developed and, importantly, provided thousands of jobs for our people.
Will a new dawn also reveal other visionary people with oomph to develop and drive new projects? Will experienced maritime champions step forward from the shadows, shed the shackles of political correctness and steer shipping from its becalmed state into zones of fresh following winds?
Perhaps, in the anticipated major Cabinet reshuffle, but without creating a new gravy boat, President Ramaphosa might see fit to appoint – perhaps at deputy minister level – a knowledgeable, enthusiastic and energetic minister of shipping to undertake that task. After all, it is the country’s most important industry, given the volume of seaborne trade and the earning potential of busy local maritime hubs.
During last year, yet other maritime matters attracted global interest. Among these was the idea of automated, unmanned ships that, via satellites, would be controlled from bunkers hundreds of nautical miles away. Already, an unmanned Baltic ferry has undertaken trials with apparent success. Yet questions remain. Who, for example, will fight a shipboard fire in mid-ocean, or fix a problem in the ship’s machinery or in a refrigerated container carrying thousands of frozen crayfish tails?
Who will restow cargo that has shifted in heavy weather, or attend to an acid leak from damaged drums within a container? Who will be aboard to try to stem an ingress of water following a collision or grounding? Who will do that vital ongoing maintenance – while the ship is under way – to counter corrosion?
Will the control system be hacked to alter the ship’s course for nefarious purposes? After all, even some of the most sophisticated and allegedly secure banking or defence computer systems have fallen prey to hackers.
Although some short-sea ships may become remote-controlled, long-haul vessels are far from being navigated by robotics.
Another matter that will gain traction this year is how shipping will be expected to further lower the emission of gases and carbon that are detrimental to the environment, an issue that the industry has addressed earnestly.
Indeed, it has done much to meet acceptable standards but, spurred on by the vociferous green lobby whose opinion is sometimes noisier than it is reasonable, the goalposts keep shifting, causing yet more adjustments to ships’ fuel quality or exhaust systems, all of which cost money, and raise ships’ operating costs. So prepare for a commensurate increase in the landed cost of new TV sets, household gadgets, car parts, oil and even food.
I return to local matters. If the election here goes well, and reason prevails over rowdiness, rudeness and riotousness, investors may return and shipping may – just may – begin to rise from the devastation wrought by the economic locusts in previous years.