La Bahia should take to the poly
THERE are question marks about the two Mike de Kock-trained favourites in the respective Grade 1 SA Classic and Grade 1 Wilgerbosdrift SA Fillies Classic over 1 800m at Turffontein tomorrow and one, Nafaayes, is tipped to win and the other, Hawwaam, is tipped to be beaten.
Hawwaam looks to be as talented as his half-brother Rainbow Bridge but has the same tendency to over race. If he does manage to settle, as he did in the Dingaans, he has an exceptional turn of foot so it all depends on how well Gavin Lerena can relax the Silvano colt. In his favour is draw five out of nine, a better draw than the eleven out of fifteen he had in the Gauteng Guineas. Secondly it is a smaller field so he will be closer to the front when starting his run from the back. However, against him is an apparent lack of pace in the race and this might allow the classy and long-striding Gauteng Guineas winner National Park to dictate. Hawwaam still managed to run on well in the Guineas from last despite having over raced and he should still go close no matter what happens, but he does have 2,7 lengths to find on National Park.
Barahin
Barahin is one of only two horses of this crop who have beaten Soqrat, so is full of class and should have come on from his Gauteng Guineas run which was his first appearance of the season and in which he finished a decent third. He should stay the trip too. Those three are hard to oppose. Zillzaal could be the other one for the quartet as he is an improving sort who will relish the galloping course and distance with its long straight. Atyaab could also earn as one who won a below par Cape Derby.
In the SA Fillies Classic Nafaayes is as well drawn as she was when winning the Gauteng Fillies Guineas (GFG), where she was settled well with cover by Warren Kennedy from draw three and then stayed on well in the TUTORIAL looks nailed on for the opener at Durbanville tomorrow when the biggest danger is the price.
The Vaughan Marshall runner opened at a value 16-10 with World Sports Betting on Wednesday but those odds didn’t survive the night and by yesterday morning 15-20 was the best on offer.
That is short enough but there is no denying the claims of M.J. Byleveld’s mount.
He was considered good enough to make his debut in the Listed race on Met day and, pushed along for much of the way, he caught the eye running on late and was only beaten five lengths.
Winning Ways made him one to follow.
Only one of his five opponents has yet to see a racecourse in earnest and that is Mister Vargus (5-2 to 7-2) who was less than four lengths fifth of seven to Double Alliance, subsequently a length and half in front of Tutorial in the Met day race.
Vivant
Vivant (28-10) is the shortest priced of the newcomers but it is far harder for a first-timer to win here than it is at Kenilworth. There is as little to choose between Capacity Crowd (28-10) and Drama Queen (5-2) in race two as the betting would suggest.
The Eric Sands runner came out less than half a length the better when the pair made their debuts three weeks ago but on this occasion Drama Queen may just come out on top.
She has much the worst of the draw but we have seen before that a poor draw here can be overcome with relative ease when you are up against inexperienced two-year-olds.
Aldo Domeyer can follow up on Procrastination 35 minutes later. The Andre Nel filly showed plenty of promise on debut, albeit in what could be quite a modest race. The favourite won easily but our selection had the third over three lengths back. But watch out for stable companion Silver Beauty. She has not raced since finishing five lengthsfifth on debut in December but she has been backed from 111 to 9-2 second favourite.
Domeyer
Domeyer is the top jockey at the country course in the past 12 months and he should have few problems bettering his 17% average strike rate tomorrow.
He has an obvious chance on Nel’s Metropolitan in race four and rides 3-1 favourite Secret Depths for Mike Robinson (in double form at Kenilworth on Tuesday) in the next.
He also has a good each way chance on 11-2 shot Woodstock Fairy in race six.
Domeyer is taken to win the Interbet Maiden (race seven) on 22-10 favourite Lip Service, a relatively rare ride for Joey Ramsden. But winning the last on newcomer Susie’s Son is a tall order and here the vote goes to Robinson’s Fateful.
straight to just get up from Running Brave. This time she is drawn in pole and Kennedy has no doubt she will stay the trip despite her pedigree suggesting there could be a doubt. She is by Exceed And Excel, who was a six furlong to seven furlong horse, and is out of a seven furlong to miler type. Ronnie’s Candy has a lot of speed being the winner of the SA Fillies Nursery. However, she is by the miler King Of Kings out of a horse who finished second in a Graded race over 1800m and furthermore she is a full-sister to a horse who has won over 2000m. Thus she should get the trip on pedigree and she has also relaxed beautifully in her last two starts. If able to get cover from a tricky draw she will go close as she appeared to be the unlucky horse in the GFG as she never had enough room to use her superb turn of foot to maximum effect. Second Request ran on well against strong older horses in the Grade 1 Paddock Stakes over this trip and has a fair draw so must have a shout. Chitengo was making eyecatching late progress in the GFG and is a progressive sort who will relish the step up in trip. Return Flight was the Equus Champion two-year-old filly and has always struck as one who will relish this course and distance. She showed last time she still has it in her and has a plum draw of two, so could dictate.
Running Brave
Running Brave is a gallant filly who often flies under the radar. She has as good a chance as any from a plum draw of four. The dark horse is Storm Destiny who has talent and was caught wide in the GFG so not surprisingly found little extra. This time she has a good draw and could surprise. Skye Lane has to be considered as one who ran a cracking fourth in the CTS 1600, although it won’t be easy going 1800m in a Grade 1 first up at altitude. In the Grade 2 Hawaii Stakes over 1400m Soqrat should show why he is the highest rated three-year-old in the country from a plum draw. He has a superb temperament and a fine turn of foot, although he is up against some good horses here.
The up and coming Greener Pastures is the tip to win the Grade 3 Acacia Handicap from Silver Thursday and Cashel Palace.
Odd Rob, Walter Smoothie and Samurai Warrior are the choices for the Listed Aquanaut, although it is advisable to go wide in the exotics here.