EC heading for a wet summer

Heavy rain and ‘negative’ flooding expected

AREAS of the Eastern Cape may be dry now, but by mid-summer it could be flooding.

This is the prediction in the seasonal climate watch for the kind of weather we can expect from December to April.

It was released last week by the SA Weather Services (SAWS) by prediction research scientist Cobus Olivier.

Olivier said he knew large parts of SA were suffering severe drought, but the expected weakening of the climate driver, La Niña, would bring “negative impacts” of heavy rain and flooding.

“Most local and international forecasting systems are consistently indicating that South Africa’s summer rainfall areas can expect wetter conditions during the mid-summer through to the early autumn,” his report stated.

“The likelihood of cooler conditions for the mid-summer season have further increased, which could be attributed to the expected wetter conditions in the seasons mentioned above.

“There is an increased possibility that a weak La Niña will develop and persist during the summer season, which will strengthen the expected wetter conditions this summer.”

SAWS has recommended that despite a positive outlook of rain ahead, “everyone should be reminded that large parts of the country are still suffering serious consequences following the severe drought conditions”.

It also states that “well-above normal” rainfall over the summer rainfall region of South Africa, will lead to “negative impacts of flooding”.

SAWS said the Eastern Cape could expect above normal temperatures, especially the minimum temperatures mostly experienced at night.

The northern part of South Africa shows better chances for below-normal temperatures.

Aliwal North farmer Rodney Shorten of El Dorado farm yesterday said rainfall had been patchy. “We are lucky to be in a 3km radius patch and were lucky to get winter and follow-up rain, and so we are in a better situation. But 20km south and north of us, the drought is the same as last year.”

Shorten said had just returned from a trip to Kenton-on-Sea.

“I have never seen Queenstown so bad, and between Grahamstown and Bedford farms are in a very bad way.”

He said they were experiencing tremendous heat in the North Eastern Cape, and there had been a large fire in the Penhoek pass area recently.

“My neighbour came from Middelburg and says the guys there are crying.”

The new prediction had brought hope, but the last few years of drought had impacted badly on farming cycles.

“Guys are hopeful but everyone is depressed at the moment. I’m meeting the bank just now to restructure short-term overdraft to medium- or long-term debt, just to buy another season.”

However, Shorten said the prices farmers were receiving for slaughter livestock were up about 15% from a year ago.

If the rains came, farmers would have to restock their farms and this could take “a couple of years”. Breeding stock would be scarce. —